The 2018 Arkansas gubernatorial election was held on November 6, 2018, to elect the governor of Arkansas, concurrently with elections to the United States Senate in other states, elections to the United States House of Representatives, and various state and local elections. Incumbent Republican governor Asa Hutchinson won re-election to a second term, winning by more than 33 percentage points and carrying all but seven counties, marking the largest winning margin of any Republican gubernatorial candidate in Arkansas history.
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Henderson: 40-50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Tie: 40–50% 50% | |||||||||||||||||
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Republican primary
editCandidates
editDeclared
editDeclined
edit- Tim Griffin, lieutenant governor and former U.S. representative (running for re-election)[5][6]
- Leslie Rutledge, attorney general (running for re-election)[1]
- John Thurston, land commissioner (running for Secretary of State)[1]
Endorsements
editAsa Hutchinson
Polling
edit| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Asa Hutchinson |
Jan Morgan |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hendrix College[10] | April 17–19, 2018 | 676 | ± 3.8% | 58% | 31% | 12% |
Results
edit
Hutchinson
- 80–90%
- 70–80%
- 60–70%
- 50–60%
Morgan
- 50–60%
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Asa Hutchinson (incumbent) | 145,251 | 69.7 | |
| Republican | Jan Morgan | 63,009 | 30.3 | |
| Total votes | 208,260 | 100.0 | ||
Democratic primary
editCandidates
editDeclared
edit- Jared Henderson, former Arkansas executive director of Teach For America[11]
- Leticia Sanders, hairdresser[12]
Declined
edit- Keith Ingram, Minority Leader of the Arkansas Senate[1]
- Jay Martin, former Majority Leader of the Arkansas House of Representatives[13][14]
- Kevin Smith, Mayor of Helena-West Helena, Arkansas and former Majority Whip of the Arkansas Senate. Former Democratic candidate in 1996 United States Senate election in Arkansas.
Results
edit
Henderson
- 70–80%
- 60–70%
- 50–60%
Sanders
- 50–60%
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Jared Henderson | 68,340 | 63.4 | |
| Democratic | Leticia Sanders | 39,382 | 36.6 | |
| Total votes | 107,722 | 100.0 | ||
Independents
editCandidates
editDeclined
edit- Bobby Bones, radio host[15][16]
Libertarian primary
editCandidates
editDeclared
edit- Mark West (Libertarian), pastor and nominee for AR-01 in 2016[17][18]
General election
editPredictions
edit| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[19] | Safe R | October 26, 2018 |
| The Washington Post[20] | Safe R | November 5, 2018 |
| FiveThirtyEight[21] | Safe R | November 5, 2018 |
| Rothenberg Political Report[22] | Safe R | November 1, 2018 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[23] | Safe R | November 5, 2018 |
| RealClearPolitics[24] | Safe R | November 4, 2018 |
| Daily Kos[25] | Safe R | November 5, 2018 |
| Fox News[26][a] | Likely R | November 5, 2018 |
| Politico[27] | Safe R | November 5, 2018 |
| Governing[28] | Safe R | November 5, 2018 |
- Notes
- ^ The Fox News Midterm Power Rankings uniquely does not contain a category for Safe/Solid races
Debates
edit| Dates | Location | Hutchinson | Henderson | West | Link |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| September 12, 2018 | Little Rock, Arkansas | Didn't participate | Participant | Participant | Full debate[29] - YouTube |
| October 12, 2018 | Conway, Arkansas | Participant | Participant | Participant | Full debate[30] - C-SPAN |
Polling
edit| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Asa Hutchinson (R) |
Jared Henderson (D) |
Mark West (L) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of Arkansas[31] | October 1–28, 2018 | 618 | ± 3.9% | 59% | 35% | – | 6% | – |
| Hendrix College[32] | October 18–19, 2018 | 528 | ± 4.3% | 60% | 24% | 5% | – | 11% |
| Hendrix College[33] | September 5–7, 2018 | 1,701 | ± 2.4% | 60% | 25% | 6% | – | 9% |
| Mason-Dixon[34] | March 21–24, 2018 | 625 | ± 4.0% | 63% | 24% | – | – | 13% |
Results
edit| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Asa Hutchinson (incumbent) | 582,406 | 65.33% | +9.89% | |
| Democratic | Jared Henderson | 283,218 | 31.77% | −9.72% | |
| Libertarian | Mark West | 25,885 | 2.90% | +0.98% | |
| Total votes | 891,509 | 100.00% | N/A | ||
| Republican hold | |||||
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican
edit- Ashley (Largest city: Crossett)
- Bradley (largest city: Warren)
- Clark (largest city: Arkadelphia)
- Dallas (Largest city: Fordyce)
- Desha (largest city: Dumas)
- Drew (Largest city: Monticello)
- Jackson (largest city: Newport)
- Lafayette (Largest city: Stamps)
- Lincoln (largest city: Star City)
- Little River (largest city: Ashdown)
- Mississippi (largest city: Osceola)
- Monroe (largest city: Clarendon)
- Nevada (Largest city: Prescott)
- Ouachita (Largest city: Camden)
- Pike (Largest city: Glenwood)
- Woodruff (largest city: Augusta)
By congressional district
editHutchinson won all 4 congressional districts.[36]
| District | Hutchinson | Henderson | Representative |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 69% | 27% | Rick Crawford |
| 2nd | 59% | 39% | French Hill |
| 3rd | 66% | 31% | Steve Womack |
| 4th | 69% | 28% | Bruce Westerman |
See also
editReferences
edit- ^ a b c d Wickline, Michael R. (January 3, 2017). "Arkansas governor to hold fundraiser for term 2; re-election bid not yet formally announced". Arkansas Democrat-Gazette. Retrieved January 3, 2017.
- ^ Wickline, Michael R. (May 17, 2017). "Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson to pursue second term". Arkansas Democrat-Gazette. Retrieved May 18, 2017.
- ^ Lanning, Curt (October 3, 2017). "Gov. Hutchinson May Have a GOP Challenger". KNWA-TV. Retrieved October 5, 2017.
- ^ "Republican Jan Morgan Announces Run for Arkansas Governor". U.S. News & World Report. January 1, 2018. Retrieved January 3, 2018.
- ^ Ramsey, David (April 18, 2016). "Lt. Gov. Tim Griffin "opposes Obamacare" (duh), dodges questions on "Arkansas Works"". Arkansas Times. Retrieved July 13, 2016.
- ^ DeMillo, Andrew (July 11, 2016). "Lt. Gov. Griffin says he's seeking re-election". Log Cabin Democrat. Archived from the original on July 13, 2016. Retrieved July 13, 2016.
- ^ Donald J. Trump. ".@AsaHutchinson, the great Governor of Arkansas, is in a primary tomorrow. He has done an incredible job with a focus on lower taxes, border security, and crime prevention. Asa loves our military and our veterans. I fully endorse Asa for Governor!". Twitter.
- ^ "NRA Endorses Governor Asa Hutchinson In Re-Election Bid". 5newsonline.com. September 20, 2018. Archived from the original on August 14, 2020.
- ^ "EDITORIAL: For Asa Hutchinson". Arkansas Democrat-Gazette. October 23, 2018.
- ^ Hendrix College
- ^ Brock, Roby (December 12, 2017). "Jared Henderson to run as Democratic candidate for Governor". Talk Business & Politics. Retrieved December 12, 2017.
- ^ "Meet Jan Morgan, GOP Candidate For Arkansas Governor". KFSM. March 27, 2018. Retrieved April 8, 2018.
- ^ Brock, Roby (November 28, 2017). "Former State Rep. Jay Martin eyeing run for governor on Democratic ticket". Talk Business & Politics. Retrieved November 29, 2017.
- ^ "Martin says time is not right to run for Arkansas governor's office". Talk Business & Politics. December 1, 2017. Retrieved December 12, 2017.
- ^ "Radio host Bobby Bones considering run for Ark. governor". THV11 Digital, KTHV. January 3, 2017. Archived from the original on January 4, 2017. Retrieved January 3, 2017.
- ^ Taha, Nada (March 14, 2017). "Bobby Makes Official Statement On Political Plans". The Bobby Bones Show. Archived from the original on March 20, 2017. Retrieved May 18, 2017.
- ^ Wickline, Michael R. (June 28, 2017). "Libertarian to run for governor's post". Arkansas Democrat-Gazette. Retrieved June 28, 2017.
- ^ Lampe, Ellen (June 27, 2017). "Libertarian Party Candidate Announces Run for AR Governor". ArkansasMatters.com. Retrieved June 28, 2017.
- ^ "2018 Governor Race Ratings for October 26, 2018". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved April 10, 2021.
- ^ "The Washington Post's gubernatorial race ratings". The Washington Post. October 16, 2018.
- ^ "2018 Governor Forecast | FiveThirtyEight". FiveThirtyEight. October 17, 2018. Retrieved October 17, 2018.
- ^ "2018 Gubernatorial Ratings | Inside Elections". insideelections.com. Retrieved November 15, 2017.
- ^ "Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2018 Governor". www.centerforpolitics.org. Retrieved November 15, 2017.
- ^ "2018 Governor Races". RealClearPolitics. October 9, 2018.
- ^ "2018 Governor Race Ratings". Daily Kos. June 5, 2018.
- ^ "2018 Midterm Power Ranking". Fox News. August 2, 2023.
- ^ "Politico Race Ratings". Politico.
- ^ "2018 Governor Elections: As November Nears, More Governors' Races Become Tossups". www.governing.com. Archived from the original on October 21, 2018. Retrieved July 18, 2018.
- ^ Full debate
- ^ Full debate
- ^ University of Arkansas
- ^ Hendrix College
- ^ Hendrix College
- ^ Mason-Dixon
- ^ "2018 Arkansas Gubernatorial election". Retrieved January 6, 2022.
- ^ "DRA 2020". Daves Redistricting. Retrieved August 19, 2024.
External links
editOfficial campaign websites
