Presidential elections are set to be held on November 7, 2028,[1] to elect the president and vice president of the United States.
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538 members of the Electoral College 270 electoral votes needed to win | |||||||
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 2028 electoral map, based on the results of the 2020 census. | |||||||
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After winning the 2016 presidential election and losing the 2020 election, Donald Trump began a campaign for a second non-consecutive term, later securing the Republican nomination and selecting senator JD Vance of Ohio as his running mate. Trump went on to win the 2024 election against incumbent Democratic vice president Kamala Harris, making him ineligible for a third term. His term is set to expire at noon on January 20, 2029, when the winners of the 2028 election will be inaugurated as president and vice president.
As the vice president-elect of the United States, Vance is considered a frontrunner for the Republican nomination for president, with governors Ron DeSantis of Florida and Glenn Youngkin of Virginia as potential contenders. Harris and governors Gavin Newsom of California, Andy Beshear of Kentucky, Josh Shapiro of Pennsylvania, Wes Moore of Maryland, and Gretchen Whitmer of Michigan are considered potential contenders for the Democratic nomination.
Background
The Republican Party, represented by Donald Trump and JD Vance, is expected to come to power in the United States in January 2025 following the 2024 election. Trump, who was elected president in 2016 but lost a re-election bid in 2020 to Joe Biden, defeated Vice President Kamala Harris, who began her campaign following President Biden's exit from the 2024 election. Trump's victory was credited to a surge in inflation and an immigration crisis.[2] Republicans secured control of the Senate and the House majority.[3]
Electoral system
The president and vice president of the United States are elected through the Electoral College, a group of 538 presidential electors who convene to vote for the president and vice president. The number of electors in the Electoral College is determined through the total number of senators and representatives with an additional three representatives for Washington, D.C.. Electors cast votes for the president and vice president; the winner is elected through a majority of 270 votes. If the election ends in a tie, a contingent election occurs, in which the House of Representatives votes on the president and the Senate votes on the vice president. Forty-eight states use a winner-take-all system in which states award all of their electors to the winner of the popular vote. In Maine and Nebraska, two votes are allocated to the winner of the popular vote, while each of the individual congressional districts have one vote. Electoral votes are certified by state electors in December and by Congress on January 6.[4]
Presidential candidates are selected in a presidential primary, conducted through primary elections or caucuses. The results of primary elections, ran by state governments, and caucuses, ran by state parties, bind convention delegates to candidates. The Democratic Party mandates a proportional allocation if a candidate receives at least fifteen percent in a given congressional district, while the Republican Party gives state parties the authority to allocate all of the delegates to a candidate within the "proportionality window", set by the first two weeks of March. After the window, state parties may set individual rules.[5] A brokered convention occurs when a candidate does not receive a majority of votes on the first round of voting,[6] or when a candidate withdraws.[7]
Article Two of the United States Constitution states that for a person to serve as president, the individual must be a natural-born citizen of the United States, be at least 35 years of age, and have been a United States resident for at least 14 years.[8] The Twenty-second Amendment forbids any person from being elected president more than twice.[9][10] Trump is ineligible to seek a third term.[11]
Electoral map
Most U.S. states are not highly competitive in presidential elections, often voting consistently for the same party due to longstanding demographic differences. In the Electoral College, this results in major-party candidates primarily focusing their campaigns on swing states, which can swing between parties from election to election. These states are critical for a presidential candidate's path to victory. For 2028, the expected swing states likely include the Rust Belt states of Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan, as well as the Sun Belt states of Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and North Carolina,[citation needed] all of which were narrowly won by Trump in 2024.[12][13][14] The Star Tribune also reported that the close margin in Minnesota would make it specifically a very likely swing state.[15]
Red states, also known as the red wall or red sea, are states that consistently vote Republican at the national level. The red wall has rarely been broken, as these states almost never swing. The last significant breach of the red wall occurred in the 1992 United States presidential election. Formerly considered swing states, such as Florida, Iowa, and Ohio, voted for Trump in all three of his elections, with increasing margins in each election (and have become reliably red in other state and federal elections) which suggests that they are no longer swing states.[16][17][18] Blue states are states that consistently vote Democratic at the national level. The blue states in 2024 include what is sometimes called the blue wall,[19] as well as Colorado, New Hampshire, New Mexico, and Virginia, formerly swing states have become reliably blue since 2008 even in Republican national victories.[20] Due to its recent record of voting Democratic even during Republican national wins, Nebraska's 2nd congressional district is also sometimes considered blue.[21]
Republican Party
Potential candidates
Ron DeSantis
Ron DeSantis has served as the governor of Florida since 2019 and previously ran for the Republican nomination in 2024. DeSantis has demonstrated a potential for being a candidate in the 2028 presidential primaries, stating that Trump voters in Iowa told him that they would vote for him in 2028.[22] He appeared in a debate with California governor Gavin Newsom in November 2023, in what was viewed by NBC News as a precursor to a 2028 presidential bid.[23]
Brian Kemp
Brian Kemp has served as the governor of Georgia since 2019. Kemp opposed the President Trump's claims of voter fraud in the 2020 election, but was ultimately endorsed by Trump in Kemp's successful 2022 re-election campaign.[24] Kemp has been floated as a potential candidate for federal office after being term-limited as governor, either for U.S. Senate in 2026 or for president in 2028.[25][26]
JD Vance
JD Vance has served as a senator of Ohio since 2023 and is the vice president-elect after winning the 2024 election as Trump's running mate. Vance is the frontrunner in the primary election, according to The New York Times's Nate Cohn,[27] and the "MAGA heir-apparent" according to USA Today,[28] as well as The Columbus Dispatch.[29] The Hill stated that Vance's debate performance against Minnesota governor Tim Walz in October 2024 improved his status as a presidential contender.[30]
Glenn Youngkin
Glenn Youngkin has served as the governor of Virginia since 2022. Youngkin has been reported as a possible candidate by Politico.[31] According to The Washington Post, he is "appearing to lay the groundwork" for a 2028 presidential bid.[32]
Democratic Party
Potential candidates
Andy Beshear
Andy Beshear has served as the governor of Kentucky since 2019. He was previously on the shortlist to be the vice presidential nominee for the 2024 election,[33] and was seen as a potential replacement for president Joe Biden before he withdrew from the race.[34] According to The Washington Post, Beshear formed a political action committee in January 2024 to increase his national profile.[35] In October 2024, Beshear headlined an event for the New Hampshire Democrats, a key early primary state, where he promoted both himself and Vice President Kamala Harris to attendees, signaling his future aspirations.[36] In response to ongoing speculation about his political ambitions, Beshear has stated in an interview with WDKY-TV that he will "see what the future holds", without explicitly ruling out a potential presidential run.[37]
Kamala Harris
Kamala Harris has served as the vice president of the United States since 2021. She became the nominee for president in the 2024 presidential election after Biden withdrew his bid, losing to Donald Trump.[38] Harris, who has the largest donor network in the Democratic Party, may run for the presidency again in 2028 according to The New York Times,[38] as well as Politico,[39] although her loss in the previous election could potentially give her a disadvantage.[38] According to USA Today, Harris intended to run in 2028 before Biden's withdrawal.[40] In November 2024, Politico reported that Harris is considering running for president in 2028 or for governor of California in 2026.[41]
Wes Moore
Wes Moore has served as the governor of Maryland since 2023. Moore has been mentioned by Politico after Trump's victory as one of the Democrats positioning themself for a potential presidential run in 2028.[39] It was also reported by The Baltimore Sun that if Moore is a force campaigning for Democrats in the upcoming midterm cycle, he could position himself as a national voice that would be in talks for the presidency in 2028.[42]
Gavin Newsom
Gavin Newsom has served as the governor of California since 2019. Newsom has been viewed as a contender for the 2028 presidential election by The New York Times,[43] Politico,[39] and The Washington Post after he garnered national attention by December 2023,[44] and he was seen as a potential replacement for Biden after his withdrawal from the 2024 election by The New York Times.[45] According to The New York Times, Newsom was considering a bid for the presidency by September 2023.[46] In November 2023, he appeared in a debate with Florida governor Ron DeSantis, in an event that was viewed as a precursor to a presidential bid by NBC News.[23] According to Axios, Newsom and J. B. Pritzker donated to Charleston, South Carolina mayoral candidate Clay Middleton, signaling a presidential ambition.[47]
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez has served as the representative of New York's 14th congressional district since 2019.[48] Ocasio-Cortez has been discussed as a potential presidential candidate beforehand.[49][50] After the 2024 election, a Slate article proposed Ocasio-Cortez run, and an article in The Hill listed her as a potential candidate. Sources have noted her popularity with young voters.[51][52] However, an article in The Independent has said that "we're still a long way out" from her having national ambitions, highlighting possible statewide runs.[53] Following The Hill article, former representative Matt Gaetz claimed that Ocasio-Cortez had been telling people she was running in 2028 since 2019, and representative Tim Burchett said not to underestimate her.[54]
J. B. Pritzker
J. B. Pritzker has served as the governor of Illinois since 2019. Pritzker is a potential Democratic contender, according to Chicago Sun-Times.[55] With Newsom, he donated to Middleton.[47]
Josh Shapiro
Josh Shapiro has served as the governor of Pennsylvania since 2023. Shapiro has been seen as a critical figure in Pennsylvania by Democratic strategists and officials, according to Politico,[39] as a politician who could garner votes from white working-class voters, according to CNN.[56] He was said to be a front-runner in the primary by The Philadelphia Inquirer.[57] According to The New York Times, Shapiro was seen as a potential replacement for Biden.[45]
Gretchen Whitmer
Gretchen Whitmer has served as the governor of Michigan since 2019. Whitmer has been discussed as a contender in 2028, although she distanced herself from speculation in an interview with Lulu Garcia-Navarro of The New York Times Magazine in June 2024.[58] She disavowed a movement to replace Biden.[59]
Declined to be candidates
The following individuals stated that they would not run for president.
- Mark Cuban, billionaire businessman, co-owner of the Dallas Mavericks, and co-founder of 2929 Entertainment[60]
- John Fetterman, U.S. Senator from Pennsylvania (2023–present) and 34th Lieutenant Governor of Pennsylvania (2019–2023)[60]
Opinion polling
Republican primary
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size[b] | Tucker Carlson |
Ted Cruz |
Ron DeSantis |
Nikki Haley |
Vivek Ramaswamy |
Marco Rubio |
JD Vance |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College | November 20–22, 2024 | 420 (RV) | — | 1% | 5% | 2% | 3% | 1% | 30% | 9%[c] | 51% |
| Echelon Insights | November 14–18, 2024 | 483 (LV) | — | 5% | 8% | 9% | 9% | 5% | 37% | 9%[d] | 18% |
| 2024 United States presidential election held. | |||||||||||
| Echelon Insights | July 19–21, 2024 | 982 (RV) | — | 4% | 14% | 9% | 10% | 2% | 19% | 16%[e] | 21% |
| Echelon Insights | January 16–18, 2024 | 832 (RV) | 6% | — | 27% | 19% | 18% | — | 1% | 12%[f] | 17% |
Democratic primary
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size[b] | Pete Buttigieg |
Kamala Harris |
Gavin Newsom |
Josh Shapiro |
Tim Walz |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College | November 20–22, 2024 | 400 (RV) | 4% | 37% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 17%[g] | 35% |
| Echelon Insights | November 14–18, 2024 | 457 (LV) | 6% | 41% | 8% | 7% | 6% | 16%[h] | 16% |
| Morning Consult | November 15–17, 2024 | 1,012 (V) | 9% | 43% | 8% | 5% | 7% | 27%[i] | — |
| 2024 United States presidential election held. | |||||||||
| Morning Consult/Politico | May 28–29, 2024 | 3,997 (RV) | 10% | 21% | 10% | 3% | — | 12%[j] | 41% |
| Echelon Insights | January 16–18, 2024 | 499 (RV) | 13% | 33% | 11% | 2% | — | 12%[k] | 29% |
Notes
- ^ a b Individuals listed below have been mentioned as potential 2028 presidential candidates in at least two reliable media sources in the last six months.
- ^ a b Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear - ^ Robert F. Kennedy Jr with 2%; Tulsi Gabbard and Candace Owens with 1%; Elon Musk, and Glenn Youngkin with <1%; Someone else with 5%
- ^ Sarah Huckabee Sanders with 2%; Josh Hawley, Tim Scott, Glenn Youngkin, and Kristi Noem with 1%; Katie Britt, Doug Burgum, and Elise Stefanik with 0%; Someone else with 3%
- ^ Sarah Huckabee Sanders with 3%; Josh Hawley, and Tim Scott with 2%; Katie Britt, Byron Donalds, and Glenn Youngkin with 1%
- ^ Greg Abbott with 3%; Kari Lake and Glenn Youngkin with 2%; Tom Cotton, Byron Donalds, Josh Hawley, Brian Kemp, and Elise Stefanik with 1%; Katie Britt with 0%
- ^ Gretchen Whitmer with 3%; Michelle Obama and Bernie Sanders with 2%; Hakeem Jeffries, Wes Moore, Alexandria Ocazio-Cortez, JB Pritzker, Jon Stewart, and Rashida Tlaib with 1%; Andy Beshear and Mark Kelly with <1%; Someone else with 4%
- ^ Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez with 4%; Gretchen Whitmer with 3%; J.B. Pritzker, Andy Beshear, and Cory Booker with 2%; Jared Polis and Wes Moore with 1%; Someone else with 1%
- ^ Alexandria-Ocasio Cortez with 4%; Gretchen Whitmer with 3%; Cory Booker, Amy Klobuchar, Elizabeth Warren, and Andy Beshear with 2%; Wes Moore, JB Pritzker, and John Fetterman with 1%; "Someone else" with 3%; "Would not vote" with 6%
- ^ Mark Kelly and Gretchen Whitmer with 4%; "Someone else" with 7%
- ^ J. B. Pritzker and Gretchen Whitmer with 3%; John Fetterman, and Raphael Warnock with 2%; Andy Beshear and Wes Moore with 1%
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in the most shocking upset of a rollicking political season
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