Papers by Marie de Lattre-Gasquet
Sustainable Intensification in Smallholder Agriculture, 2017
This chapter examines three examples of foresight exercises and discusses the kinds of institutio... more This chapter examines three examples of foresight exercises and discusses the kinds of institutional changes they led to, and the key elements of their success. It includes recommendations about the conditions for going from foresight to institutional innovation or policy-making. In the late 1990s, the foresight approach was not common in research programs, and it contributed to three types of innovations: new research projects, new research questions and methods, and new partnerships. Foresight is 'a systematic, participatory and multi-disciplinary approach to explore mid- to long-term futures and drivers of change'. The Agrimonde foresight exercise was launched in 2006 by Cirad and Inra in order to build scenarios on how to adequately feed a population of nine billion individuals in 2050 while at the same time preserving the ecosystems. To improve decision-making for institutional innovation or policy-making, three recommendations are proposed
In early 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic introduced wide-ranging, sudden changes in the way human soc... more In early 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic introduced wide-ranging, sudden changes in the way human societies operate. The crisis has altered, at least temporarily but also significantly-individual and collective habits and, in an apparently more lasting way, some dimensions of economic and social life. Globally, during the first wave of the pandemic (from March to June 2020), almost 54% of the population has been locked down (IEA, 2020). In many countries, the lockdowns meant a great restriction of mobility, business closures, unprecedented state intervention and support measures, ranging from the massive injection of public resources into the private sector to the introduction of exceptional measures such as curfews and states of emergency. The pandemic has made us aware again of a number of uncertainties, which, though part of our lives, we had tended to forget or put out from our minds. In the face of the uncertainties and the lack of understanding of the scale of the ongoing phenomenon, a "litany", in other words "the day-today future, the
Au Cirad, une équipe de préparation et de suivi du Sommet des Nations unies sur les systèmes alim... more Au Cirad, une équipe de préparation et de suivi du Sommet des Nations unies sur les systèmes alimentaires a été mise en place.
Futuribles: Analyse et Prospective, Mar 16, 2021
https://www.futuribles.com/fr/groupes/forum-prospectif-de-lafrique-de-louest/document/le-developp... more https://www.futuribles.com/fr/groupes/forum-prospectif-de-lafrique-de-louest/document/le-developpement-des-espaces-ruraux-en-afrique-de-/ Présentée comme essentiellement rurale, l’Afrique de l’Ouest s’urbanise rapidement à la fois en raison de la croissance de la population urbaine, de la prolifération de nouvelles petites agglomérations qui franchissent chaque année le seuil de l’urbain et par le développement des métropoles, et un peu de l’exode rural. Les équilibres entre pôles urbains et campagnes s’en trouvent nécessairement modifiés. En 2020, le développement des territoires ouest-africains ne permet plus de considérer l’espace rural comme un espace abandonné par l’État, enclavé, éloigné des services de base et rythmé par la pratique de l’agriculture pluviale. C’est en réalité un assemblage de campagnes dynamiques et en recomposition permanente qui ne connaissent pas une évolution homogène et qui jouent un rôle prépondérant dans l’urbanisation. Si le sentiment d’abandon et d’isolement de certaines populations demeure, le monde rural se décline aujourd’hui différemment avec une grande diversité d’activités économiques. De façon générale, la mobilité des ruraux, leurs comportements sociaux, économiques et démographiques évoluent. L’enjeu de ces transformations est de taille au regard du contexte démographique sous-régional, puisque l’espace rural ouest-africain devrait abriter en 2030 plus de personnes qu’il n’en accueille aujourd’hui. Après avoir caractérisé la diversité des espaces ruraux en 2020 ainsi que leurs rapports aux pôles urbains, cette analyse développe, sous un jour résolument prospectif, les facteurs déterminants de leurs évolutions qui sont leur démographie, leur gouvernance, leurs activités économiques et le contexte mondial. Elle présente les "tendances lourdes" d’évolution dont la probabilité est importante à horizon 2040, les "émergences" ou phénomènes nouvellement observés mais dont la propagation est susceptible de modifier les situations observées dans les champs d’études considérés tout comme les "incertitudes majeures" que soulèvent les évolutions des espaces ruraux. Non exhaustive, cette première recension permet d’esquisser en conclusion des hypothèses d’évolution de ces espaces ruraux à horizon 2040.
Agrimonde-Terra is a foresight exercise on land use and food security Cirad and Inra are building... more Agrimonde-Terra is a foresight exercise on land use and food security Cirad and Inra are building regionalized global landuse scenarios using the best qualitative and quantitative evidence, with the support of a Scenario Advisory Committee. The aim of the land-use scenarios is to explore the possible land-use changes between now and 2050 and their impact on nutrition and food security in the context of climate change. The conceptual framework, the scenarios and the quantitative platform (GlobAgri and its application GlogAgri-AgT) provide tools for discussion, 'food for thought' as it were, for stakeholders involved in land-use and food security on a global, regional or national scale.
Annales des Mines - Réalités industrielles, 2019
L'etude retrospective de la filiere du cacao - de la production a la consommation - montre qu... more L'etude retrospective de la filiere du cacao - de la production a la consommation - montre que les elements qui vont le plus influencer l'avenir de la filiere sont le rapport entre les facteurs de production, les parasites et les maladies, la consommation, la qualite et les strategies des organisations professionnelles. L'exercice de prospective indique comment chacun de ces elements peut evoluer et propose trois scenarios pour l'avenir de la filiere. Il aboutit a des recommandations pour que la situation aille dans un sens qui soit favorable pour tous les acteurs de la filiere. (Resume d'auteur)
Box 5.1. Glossary of terms used relative to land use. Agricultural area: sum of areas under "Arab... more Box 5.1. Glossary of terms used relative to land use. Agricultural area: sum of areas under "Arable land and Permanent crops" and "Permanent meadows and pastures". Arable land: land under temporary agricultural crops (multiple-cropped areas are counted only once), temporary meadows for mowing or pasture, land under market and kitchen gardens and land temporarily fallow (less than five years). The abandoned land resulting from shifting cultivation is not included in this category. Data for "Arable land" are not meant to indicate the amount of land that is potentially cultivable. Forest area: land spanning more than 0.5 hectares with trees higher than 5 metres and a canopy cover of more than 10%, or trees able to reach these thresholds in situ. It does not include land that is predominantly under agricultural or urban land use. Permanent crops: land cultivated with long-term crops which do not have to be replanted for several years (such as cocoa and coffee); land under trees and shrubs producing flowers, such as roses and jasmine; and nurseries (except those for forest trees, which should be classified under "forest"). Permanent meadows and pastures are excluded from land under permanent crops. Other land: land not classified as Agricultural land and Forest area. It includes builtup and related land, barren land, other wooded land etc. Permanent meadows and pastures: land used permanently (five years or more) to grow herbaceous forage crops, either cultivated or growing wild (wild prairie or grazing land). Agrimonde-Terra uses the term "Cultivated area" to designate arable land + permanent crops.
Cahiers Agricultures, 2009
L'IAASTD (International Assessment of Agricultural Knowledge, Science and Technology for Dev... more L'IAASTD (International Assessment of Agricultural Knowledge, Science and Technology for Development) 1 est la quatrième 2 initiative internationale destinée à fournir aux décideurs politiques nationaux, aux agences et organisations internationales, ainsi qu'à la communauté ...
At present, palm oil and biofuels arouse both hopes and fears. Palm oil, which is very important ... more At present, palm oil and biofuels arouse both hopes and fears. Palm oil, which is very important for the economy of several Asian and African countries and is used mostly by the food industry and oleochemisty, and very little as for biofuels, has positive and negative impacts on the use of land and the climate. Its production is often criticized from a social point of view and the quality of its oil is discussed from a nutritional point of view. A number of devices are set to encourage firms growing palm trees to have an ethical and deontological approach. Agricultural research institutions (and researchers individually) are increasingly constrained by ethical issues related to biofuels. In France, the Joint Ethics Committee of Inra (Institut national de la recherche agronomique) and Cirad (Centre de coopération internationale en recherche agronomique pour le développement) has recently worked on this question. Biofuels appear as a revealing (in the chemical sense) of a crack in the ethos of those institutions. Cirad and Inra both carry out mission-oriented research. For years, researchers have worked to increase productivity and agricultural revenues, improve food security and market stabilization, reduce inequalities, etc. This mission-oriented research was a moral bail to agricultural productivity. Environmental damages provoked by agriculture and development policies leading to a wide range of problems are undermining the ethos of the two research institutions. Biofuels research, in large terms, is revealing difficulties as different research issues are competing among themselves. The Committee recommended revising the meaning of "mission-oriented research" and made specific recommendations on how to deal with some ethical questions related to biofuels research.
European Journal of Futures Research, 2016
The perception of ocean areas by policymakers or by people, living or not on the coast, has signi... more The perception of ocean areas by policymakers or by people, living or not on the coast, has significantly varied over centuries. Due to its vastness and complexity, the sea has been studied within distinct academic disciplines. However, the current issues related to the sea, such as climate change, marine pollution or coastal tourism, require an integrated vision of the assets and drawbacks in order to meet the challenges arising from human activities both at sea and onshore. In this study, a group of foresight officers from the French network of public research institutes decided to crosscheck and compare several science approaches (biology, sociology, economics, etc) about oceans. Thus, 11 sectors of maritime activity (transportation, fisheries, energy, etc.) were cross-tabulated with 9 basic social functions (providing food, housing, learning, etc.). In this matrix, the main challenges and issues projected for 2030 were sought, in the frame of a baseline scenario. Results were clustered through 4 criteria, leading to 9 major challenges, each of them broken down into two important issues for research. The outcomes were used to create a survey, allowing the ranking of the research priorities. Most of the 9 challenges tally with the research and development objectives of great maritime states, except for governance and monitoring, which remain underscored. As a result, maritime powers still show more interest on securing national resources rather than on promoting international cooperation for secure trade and sustainable exploitation of marine resources. But foresight in this field could help changing the mentalities notably because oceans show clearly now to be a vital common good for mankind.
La filiere caoutchouc naturel traverse depuis deux ans une zone de turbulences avec pour conseque... more La filiere caoutchouc naturel traverse depuis deux ans une zone de turbulences avec pour consequences une chute des cours du produit caoutchouc naturel, des stocks accumules ici ou la, et la disparition de l'INRO. Paradoxalement, des experts annoncent une penurie dans un proche avenir. Cette prevision repose sur l'hypothese que le caoutchouc naturel est un materiau techniquement incontournable, en particulier dans le domaine du pneumatique; elle repose aussi sur le constat d'une demande croissante en pneumatiques et enfin sur le fait que la production, concentree en Asie, est handicapee par la concurrence d'autres activites agricoles ou pas. Face a cette incertitude deux demarches sont possibles: - la prevision qui voit l'avenir comme la poursuite des tendances actuelles; - la prospective qui envisage plusieurs avenirs possibles, analyse les tendances et enfin construit des scenarios. L'originalite de cette seconde demarche par rapport aux etudes previsionnis...
The Agrimonde-Terra foresight proposes five exploratory scenarios of land use and food security i... more The Agrimonde-Terra foresight proposes five exploratory scenarios of land use and food security in 2050. They point out a diversity of pathways of change and highlight the fact that we are entering a period of great uncertainty and instability. Agrimonde-Terra's scenarios also suggest that ensuring world and regional food and nutrition security in a context of climate change is a difficult, long and narrow path.
Summary ANR is a public organization devoted to competitive project funding in both fundamental a... more Summary ANR is a public organization devoted to competitive project funding in both fundamental and applied research. ANR was created in 2005 after the vote of a law whose objective was to improve the French Research and Innovation system. ANR is both a result of the evolution of the French research and innovation system and a tool to confirm and stabilize this evolution. The objective of ANR is to promote creativity, to bring more flexibility and, subsequently, reactivity, and to increase competitiveness while keeping a good balance between fundamental research and applied research. ANR addresses both public research institutions and industries with a double mission of producing new knowledge and promoting interaction between public laboratories and industrial laboratories through the development of partnerships. ANR disposes of programs and calls for proposals, but it cannot define on its own the content of these programs. It needs knowledge about the evolution of science at natio...
Journal of …, 2003
Foresight is a powerful tool for imagining possible futures, for raising public awareness, for he... more Foresight is a powerful tool for imagining possible futures, for raising public awareness, for helping decision-making and addressing questions related to the relationship between science and society. In this article we make a crit-ical analysis of two foresight ...
Foresight activities can be useful tools in public decision-making processes, and in particular f... more Foresight activities can be useful tools in public decision-making processes, and in particular for agricultural science and technology priority setting. Foresight complements more traditional ways of looking at the future, such as projections and models. Foresight uses a systems approach that is appropriate for agriculture and can be embedded in research organizations. This chapter describes three foresight exercises. The exploration of possible futures for a commodity (cocoa) has helped defining new research priorities, partnerships and networks. The Dutch exploration of the challenges facing agribusiness, rural areas and fisheries, and the contribution of S&T to meeting these challenges, created new networks and led to actions. IFPRI’s ‘2020 Vision’ for food, agriculture and the environment led to interesting data and reached many researchers, but did not manage to generate consensus about research priorities. Finally, the chapter discusses the prospects for the use of foresight ...
La filiere cacao est en pleine evolution : les organisations etatiques des pays producteurs ont e... more La filiere cacao est en pleine evolution : les organisations etatiques des pays producteurs ont ete demantelees, le secteur de la transformation est en cours d'integration verticale et la composition du chocolat fait l'objet de discussions. Confrontes a ces changements brusques dans un secteur qui a une forte incidence sur les ressources de plusieurs pays tropicaux, une vingtaine de chercheurs du Cirad ont mene une etude prospective sur l'avenir de la filiere a l'horizon 2010. (Resume d'auteur)
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Papers by Marie de Lattre-Gasquet
agriculture are described along with their effects on land use (in particular, the surface area under cultivation), trade and food security. These scenarios have been worked out by plausibly and coherently combining hypotheses about the determinants that affect trends in agriculture, namely: the global context (population, policies, social
innovations, state of the economy) climate change, food systems, herding and farming systems, and rural-urban interactions. Reinforcing the security of a nutritional food supply will be possible only by switching from approaches based on a sector or industry to systemic approaches. A necessary transformation of food systems requires strong coordination among stakeholders and the adoption of public policies for following up on these changes.
agriculture are described along with their effects on land use (in particular, the surface area under cultivation), trade and food security. These scenarios have been worked out by plausibly and coherently combining hypotheses about the determinants that affect trends in agriculture, namely: the global context (population, policies, social
innovations, state of the economy) climate change, food systems, herding and farming systems, and rural-urban interactions. Reinforcing the security of a nutritional food supply will be possible only by switching from approaches based on a sector or industry to systemic approaches. A necessary transformation of food systems requires strong coordination among stakeholders and the adoption of
public policies for following up on these changes.
Agrimonde, et analyse à partir de cet exemple le rôle de la prospective pour la recherche.
Cet article détaille le lancement, le déroulement et la diffusion d’un exercice de prospective, Agrimonde, et analyse à partir de cet exemple le rôle de la prospective pour la recherche.
des droits, par l’origine de leurs capitaux, par la substitution du travail par le capital,
par leurs modes de collaboration, par leurs sources de revenus et par leur rapport au
consommateur final. Sept processus dynamiques sont proposés et permettent de réfléchir aux évolutions futures.
important for the economy of several Asian and African countries and is used mostly by the food
industry and oleochemisty, and very little as for biofuels, has positive and negative impacts on the use
of land and the climate. Its production is often criticized from a social point of view and the quality of its
oil is discussed from a nutritional point of view. A number of devices are set to encourage firms growing
palm trees to have an ethical and deontological approach. Agricultural research institutions
(and researchers individually) are increasingly constrained by ethical issues related to biofuels. In
France, the Joint Ethics Committee of Inra (Institut national de la recherche agronomique) and Cirad
(Centre de coopération internationale en recherche agronomique pour le développement) has
recently worked on this question. Biofuels appear as a revealing (in the chemical sense) of a crack in
the ethos of those institutions. Cirad and Inra both carry out mission-oriented research. For years,
researchers have worked to increase productivity and agricultural revenues, improve food security
and market stabilization, reduce inequalities, etc. This mission-oriented research was a moral bail to
agricultural productivity. Environmental damages provoked by agriculture and development policies
leading to a wide range of problems are undermining the ethos of the two research institutions. Biofuels
research, in large terms, is revealing difficulties as different research issues are competing among themselves.
The Committee recommended revising the meaning of “mission-oriented research” and made
specific recommendations on how to deal with some ethical questions related to biofuels research.