A telephone survey was conducted on genetically modified foods in the U.S. Consumers' attitud... more A telephone survey was conducted on genetically modified foods in the U.S. Consumers' attitudes are studied using a multiple correspondence analysis, and typology constructed through the use of a cluster analysis. Five distinct behaviors are extracted.
This paper reports results from a pilot U.S. national telephone survey on genetically modified fo... more This paper reports results from a pilot U.S. national telephone survey on genetically modified foods (vegetable oil, cornflake cereal, and salmon). The survey featured contingent valuation in which respondents chose between the GM and non-GM alternatives. The binary and multinomial logit models yielded estimated willingness to pay to avoid the GM alternatives. Respondents are willing to pay 41.2%, 31.4%, 40.9%, and 52.5% of the base prices to avoid GM vegetable oil, GM cornflakes, GM-fed salmon, and GM salmon, respectively.
A model consisting of demandand price equations was estimated by techniques of error components a... more A model consisting of demandand price equations was estimated by techniques of error components and two-stage least squares. Thirteen manufacturing industries were selected for analysis. Results show that the deregulation of gas prices should be an effective means of reducing both future gas shortage and environmental degradation.
Underscoring the nation's increasing energy needs, this volume of studies contributes methodo... more Underscoring the nation's increasing energy needs, this volume of studies contributes methodologically to the econometric analysis of energy. It examines the problems of supply and demand for electricity in particular, and also for coal, natural gas, and petroleum. Econometric methods are applied to the problems of aggregate and space heating demands for fuels, the supply and demand for coal, changing economic conditions for coal extraction, and electricity costs. The volume concludes that price elasticities are high, and that energy policy should rely on the price mechanism.
This report presents further results of validating Version I of the ORNL-SLED Model, an investiga... more This report presents further results of validating Version I of the ORNL-SLED Model, an investigation of structural changes in electricity demand, an update of the Version I model as Version II, the electricity cost forecasting model, and the forecasts of electricity demand and prices by sector and by state for 1977-2000. Further validation of the Version I model was conducted through ex post forecasting in the post-sample years of 1975 and 1976. The ex post forecasting results reveal no evidence of any significant non-price induced conservation in 1975 and 1976. The results obtained from investigating structural change show that changes in either the general structure of the demand equations or the estimated own-price elasticities between Version I and Version II are generally not statistically significant. A new set of the assumptions of exogenous variables was developed and used to forecast electricity demand and prices. The forecast rates of growth in total electricity demand vary considerably from state to state: Arizona has the highest rate (8.2%) and Massachusetts and Illinois have the lowest rate (2.9%) for the 1976-1990 period. For the United States as a whole, the forecast annual growth rates of total electricity demand are 4.5%, 4.1% and 5.5% formore » the base, high-price, and low-price cases, respectively, for the same period.« less
This report presents further results of validating Version I of the ORNL-SLED Model, an investiga... more This report presents further results of validating Version I of the ORNL-SLED Model, an investigation of structural changes in electricity demand, an update of the Version I model as Version II, the electricity cost forecasting model, and the forecasts of electricity demand and prices by sector and by state for 1977-2000. Further validation of the Version I model was conducted through ex post forecasting in the post-sample years of 1975 and 1976. The ex post forecasting results reveal no evidence of any significant non-price induced conservation in 1975 and 1976. The results obtained from investigating structural change show that changes in either the general structure of the demand equations or the estimated own-price elasticities between Version I and Version II are generally not statistically significant. A new set of the assumptions of exogenous variables was developed and used to forecast electricity demand and prices. The forecast rates of growth in total electricity demand vary considerably from state to state: Arizona has the highest rate (8.2%) and Massachusetts and Illinois have the lowest rate (2.9%) for the 1976-1990 period. For the United States as a whole, the forecast annual growth rates of total electricity demand are 4.5%, 4.1% and 5.5% formore » the base, high-price, and low-price cases, respectively, for the same period.« less
A purchase infrequency model and a Tobit model are used to examine impacts of different income so... more A purchase infrequency model and a Tobit model are used to examine impacts of different income sources on food expenditures using BLS's Consumer Expenditure Diary Survey data. Results show that four income components have significantly different effects on the expenditures of food, food at home, and food away from home.
Consumers' beliefs in the benefits of reducing fat intakes, especially saturated fat, and of ... more Consumers' beliefs in the benefits of reducing fat intakes, especially saturated fat, and of increasing calcium intake from such foods as dairy products, depend upon the acquired information related to diet and health. This study develops new health information measures from different sources. The monthly information indexes, constructed for 1980-93, show that the amount of consumer information related to fat and cholesterol in circulation reached the highest levels during 1989-90. The results from an empirical application show that these new indexes of consumer health information about fats and cholesterol could explain the changing patterns of consumer choice for whole milk vs. lower fat milk in the United States.
This research is aimed at investigating the consumer’s preference for food produced in Taiwan and... more This research is aimed at investigating the consumer’s preference for food produced in Taiwan and the economic benefits for the country of origin labeling. The study uses both experimental auction and contingent valuation method (CVM) to investigate factors that affect the consumer’s willingness to pay (WTP) for products under country-of-origin labeling (COOL). Experimental auctions of Taiwan and China preserved olives as well as Taiwan, China and Vietnam oolong teas were conducted using the Vickrey’s second price sealed bid auction. For CVM, the study used the double-bounded dichotomous choice method in which we started assuming the same base price for all products in the first question and then varied the prices in the second CV question. The products not chosen in the first question were offered with a discount in a range from 10 % to 50% in the following question. Based on auction data, the Tobit model shows that the estimated premiums are 58.1%, 78.15 % and 98.13 % for Taiwan p...
A telephone survey was conducted on genetically modified foods in the U.S. Consumers’ attitudes a... more A telephone survey was conducted on genetically modified foods in the U.S. Consumers’ attitudes are studied using a multiple correspondence analysis, and typology constructed through the use of a cluster analysis. Five distinct behaviors are extracted.
Recently, the Economic Statistics Committee has desired to address issues of priorities among var... more Recently, the Economic Statistics Committee has desired to address issues of priorities among various data series collected by the Federal statistical agencies and used by agricultural and rural social scientists. The AAEA workshop on "Agriculture and Rural Areas Approaching the 21st Century:
Formulation of marketing policies often is based on the knowledge of various demand elasticities ... more Formulation of marketing policies often is based on the knowledge of various demand elasticities for the commodities under consideration. One important aspect of demand analysis is to inquire qualitatively or quantitatively into the extent of demand substitution between commodities. The Florida citrus growers and processors have been much concerned about the impact of flavored and synthetic citrus product substitutes for which the market, in terms of absolute sales, has doubled in less than one decade (Table 1). The entry of a new product often takes place during the time when a dramatic leftward shift in supply occurs. A most recent example is the introduction of textured vegetable protein in ground beef when a severe shortage and a dramatic increase in the price of beef occurred in 1973. In the case of the citrus juice market, the introduction and market penetration of synthetic and partially natural citrus-flavored drinks were stimulated during the two Florida freezes in 1957 and...
A dynamic demand equation and a quadratic price equation for electricity are specified and estima... more A dynamic demand equation and a quadratic price equation for electricity are specified and estimated simultaneously by the 3SLS method for each of 15 SIC three-digit manufacturing industries. Results show that estimated coefficients are mostly significant and have correct signs, that there are substantial interfuel substitutions in manufacturing industries, and that the estimated price elasticities of demand, the coefficients of adjustment, and the elasticities of demand with respect to the value added all vary greatly among industries. An interesting result is obtained from the analysis on the variation in the price elasticities of demand among industries. The short-run price elasticity in absolute value is found to be positively related to the electricity intensiveness, the price of electricity, and the coefficient of adjustment, while it is negatively related to the elasticity of demand with respect to the value added. The findings on the variation in the price elasticity are discussed. (1) A rise in electricity price will reduce the industrial demand for electricity not only because quantity demanded and price are negatively related, but also because a higher price will make industries more responsive to the increase in price. (2) A high-price policy to conserve electricity is more effective for industriesmore » like SIC 262, 263, and 333 because they are more electricity-intensive than other industries like SIC 203, 371, and 225. (3) To those industries that use electricity more as an indirect input, a price policy should be more effective than to those industries that use electricity more as a direct input. (4) Some industries (e.g., SIC 263, 371, and 281A) react more quickly to changes in factors affecting the costs than others (e.g., SIC 204, 291, and 331); hence their demand for electricity is more responsive to changes in the price. 22 references.« less
A telephone survey was conducted on genetically modified foods in the U.S. Consumers' attitud... more A telephone survey was conducted on genetically modified foods in the U.S. Consumers' attitudes are studied using a multiple correspondence analysis, and typology constructed through the use of a cluster analysis. Five distinct behaviors are extracted.
This paper reports results from a pilot U.S. national telephone survey on genetically modified fo... more This paper reports results from a pilot U.S. national telephone survey on genetically modified foods (vegetable oil, cornflake cereal, and salmon). The survey featured contingent valuation in which respondents chose between the GM and non-GM alternatives. The binary and multinomial logit models yielded estimated willingness to pay to avoid the GM alternatives. Respondents are willing to pay 41.2%, 31.4%, 40.9%, and 52.5% of the base prices to avoid GM vegetable oil, GM cornflakes, GM-fed salmon, and GM salmon, respectively.
A model consisting of demandand price equations was estimated by techniques of error components a... more A model consisting of demandand price equations was estimated by techniques of error components and two-stage least squares. Thirteen manufacturing industries were selected for analysis. Results show that the deregulation of gas prices should be an effective means of reducing both future gas shortage and environmental degradation.
Underscoring the nation's increasing energy needs, this volume of studies contributes methodo... more Underscoring the nation's increasing energy needs, this volume of studies contributes methodologically to the econometric analysis of energy. It examines the problems of supply and demand for electricity in particular, and also for coal, natural gas, and petroleum. Econometric methods are applied to the problems of aggregate and space heating demands for fuels, the supply and demand for coal, changing economic conditions for coal extraction, and electricity costs. The volume concludes that price elasticities are high, and that energy policy should rely on the price mechanism.
This report presents further results of validating Version I of the ORNL-SLED Model, an investiga... more This report presents further results of validating Version I of the ORNL-SLED Model, an investigation of structural changes in electricity demand, an update of the Version I model as Version II, the electricity cost forecasting model, and the forecasts of electricity demand and prices by sector and by state for 1977-2000. Further validation of the Version I model was conducted through ex post forecasting in the post-sample years of 1975 and 1976. The ex post forecasting results reveal no evidence of any significant non-price induced conservation in 1975 and 1976. The results obtained from investigating structural change show that changes in either the general structure of the demand equations or the estimated own-price elasticities between Version I and Version II are generally not statistically significant. A new set of the assumptions of exogenous variables was developed and used to forecast electricity demand and prices. The forecast rates of growth in total electricity demand vary considerably from state to state: Arizona has the highest rate (8.2%) and Massachusetts and Illinois have the lowest rate (2.9%) for the 1976-1990 period. For the United States as a whole, the forecast annual growth rates of total electricity demand are 4.5%, 4.1% and 5.5% formore » the base, high-price, and low-price cases, respectively, for the same period.« less
This report presents further results of validating Version I of the ORNL-SLED Model, an investiga... more This report presents further results of validating Version I of the ORNL-SLED Model, an investigation of structural changes in electricity demand, an update of the Version I model as Version II, the electricity cost forecasting model, and the forecasts of electricity demand and prices by sector and by state for 1977-2000. Further validation of the Version I model was conducted through ex post forecasting in the post-sample years of 1975 and 1976. The ex post forecasting results reveal no evidence of any significant non-price induced conservation in 1975 and 1976. The results obtained from investigating structural change show that changes in either the general structure of the demand equations or the estimated own-price elasticities between Version I and Version II are generally not statistically significant. A new set of the assumptions of exogenous variables was developed and used to forecast electricity demand and prices. The forecast rates of growth in total electricity demand vary considerably from state to state: Arizona has the highest rate (8.2%) and Massachusetts and Illinois have the lowest rate (2.9%) for the 1976-1990 period. For the United States as a whole, the forecast annual growth rates of total electricity demand are 4.5%, 4.1% and 5.5% formore » the base, high-price, and low-price cases, respectively, for the same period.« less
A purchase infrequency model and a Tobit model are used to examine impacts of different income so... more A purchase infrequency model and a Tobit model are used to examine impacts of different income sources on food expenditures using BLS's Consumer Expenditure Diary Survey data. Results show that four income components have significantly different effects on the expenditures of food, food at home, and food away from home.
Consumers' beliefs in the benefits of reducing fat intakes, especially saturated fat, and of ... more Consumers' beliefs in the benefits of reducing fat intakes, especially saturated fat, and of increasing calcium intake from such foods as dairy products, depend upon the acquired information related to diet and health. This study develops new health information measures from different sources. The monthly information indexes, constructed for 1980-93, show that the amount of consumer information related to fat and cholesterol in circulation reached the highest levels during 1989-90. The results from an empirical application show that these new indexes of consumer health information about fats and cholesterol could explain the changing patterns of consumer choice for whole milk vs. lower fat milk in the United States.
This research is aimed at investigating the consumer’s preference for food produced in Taiwan and... more This research is aimed at investigating the consumer’s preference for food produced in Taiwan and the economic benefits for the country of origin labeling. The study uses both experimental auction and contingent valuation method (CVM) to investigate factors that affect the consumer’s willingness to pay (WTP) for products under country-of-origin labeling (COOL). Experimental auctions of Taiwan and China preserved olives as well as Taiwan, China and Vietnam oolong teas were conducted using the Vickrey’s second price sealed bid auction. For CVM, the study used the double-bounded dichotomous choice method in which we started assuming the same base price for all products in the first question and then varied the prices in the second CV question. The products not chosen in the first question were offered with a discount in a range from 10 % to 50% in the following question. Based on auction data, the Tobit model shows that the estimated premiums are 58.1%, 78.15 % and 98.13 % for Taiwan p...
A telephone survey was conducted on genetically modified foods in the U.S. Consumers’ attitudes a... more A telephone survey was conducted on genetically modified foods in the U.S. Consumers’ attitudes are studied using a multiple correspondence analysis, and typology constructed through the use of a cluster analysis. Five distinct behaviors are extracted.
Recently, the Economic Statistics Committee has desired to address issues of priorities among var... more Recently, the Economic Statistics Committee has desired to address issues of priorities among various data series collected by the Federal statistical agencies and used by agricultural and rural social scientists. The AAEA workshop on "Agriculture and Rural Areas Approaching the 21st Century:
Formulation of marketing policies often is based on the knowledge of various demand elasticities ... more Formulation of marketing policies often is based on the knowledge of various demand elasticities for the commodities under consideration. One important aspect of demand analysis is to inquire qualitatively or quantitatively into the extent of demand substitution between commodities. The Florida citrus growers and processors have been much concerned about the impact of flavored and synthetic citrus product substitutes for which the market, in terms of absolute sales, has doubled in less than one decade (Table 1). The entry of a new product often takes place during the time when a dramatic leftward shift in supply occurs. A most recent example is the introduction of textured vegetable protein in ground beef when a severe shortage and a dramatic increase in the price of beef occurred in 1973. In the case of the citrus juice market, the introduction and market penetration of synthetic and partially natural citrus-flavored drinks were stimulated during the two Florida freezes in 1957 and...
A dynamic demand equation and a quadratic price equation for electricity are specified and estima... more A dynamic demand equation and a quadratic price equation for electricity are specified and estimated simultaneously by the 3SLS method for each of 15 SIC three-digit manufacturing industries. Results show that estimated coefficients are mostly significant and have correct signs, that there are substantial interfuel substitutions in manufacturing industries, and that the estimated price elasticities of demand, the coefficients of adjustment, and the elasticities of demand with respect to the value added all vary greatly among industries. An interesting result is obtained from the analysis on the variation in the price elasticities of demand among industries. The short-run price elasticity in absolute value is found to be positively related to the electricity intensiveness, the price of electricity, and the coefficient of adjustment, while it is negatively related to the elasticity of demand with respect to the value added. The findings on the variation in the price elasticity are discussed. (1) A rise in electricity price will reduce the industrial demand for electricity not only because quantity demanded and price are negatively related, but also because a higher price will make industries more responsive to the increase in price. (2) A high-price policy to conserve electricity is more effective for industriesmore » like SIC 262, 263, and 333 because they are more electricity-intensive than other industries like SIC 203, 371, and 225. (3) To those industries that use electricity more as an indirect input, a price policy should be more effective than to those industries that use electricity more as a direct input. (4) Some industries (e.g., SIC 263, 371, and 281A) react more quickly to changes in factors affecting the costs than others (e.g., SIC 204, 291, and 331); hence their demand for electricity is more responsive to changes in the price. 22 references.« less
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