Phil Scarf

Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Faculty Member

University of SALFORD, England, United Kingdom, Salford Business School, Faculty Member

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I am Professor of Management Mathematics at Cardiff Business School. I apply Statistics and Operational Research in reliability and maintenance, manufacturing informatics, autonomous systems, corrosion science, sport, and education performance. I organize conferences on Maintenance Modelling (http://www.ima.org.uk/conferences/conferences_calendar/mimar9.cfm.html) and Mathematics in Sport (www.mathsportinternational.com). I have advised the FA Premier League regarding football player rating, having developed the EA Sports Player Performance Index (http://www.premierleague.com/en-gb/players/ea-sports-player-performance-index.html) with Ian McHale, and I have held EPSRC grants relating to development of optimum strategy in track cycling (EP/F005792/1), modelling of the training process (EP/F006136/1), Bayesian calculations in maintenance modelling (GR/L92716), and condition based maintenance of production plant (GR/L20801). I was co-investigator on the EPRSC project “HEAD: Holistic evidence and design (HEAD): sensory impacts, practical outcomes”(EP/J015709/1). I am currently a co-investigator on the EU FP7 Marie Curie ITN: “SMART-E: Sustainable Manufacturing through Advanced Robotics Training – Europe” (€3.9m, 2013-17) and supervising an early-stage researcher in “Mathematical modelling for a self-healing robotic cell (maintenance robot)”: http://www.smart-e-mariecurie.eu/
I am editor-in-chief of the IMA Journal of Management Mathematics (http://imaman.oxfordjournals.org/).
http://scholar.google.co.uk/citations?user=pS5Y-ZgAAAAJ&hl=en; https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Phil_Scarf/
Summary: h-index 24 (Scopus), 88 refereed journal articles, most cited: P.A. Scarf (1997) On the application of mathematical models in maintenance, Eur.J.Opl. Res. 99, 493-506 (>200 citations).

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Age-Based Replacement with Imperfect Repair and Risk as Low as Reasonably Practicable

Pesquisa Operacional, 2022

Maintenance policies must consider system reliability and the risk of accidents in systems where ... more Maintenance policies must consider system reliability and the risk of accidents in systems where equipment failures represent a risk. In this context, this work proposes an age replacement policy with Bayesian imperfect repair and considers the "as low as reasonably practicable" (ALARP) principle. The policy determines the age of replacement that minimizes the long-run cost per unit time when the failure rate is ALARP. The model also supposes that failures are either minimally or perfectly repaired, depending on the skill of the maintainer. Numerical applications are performed with and without the disproportion factor in ALARP, both for infinite and one-replacement-cycle horizons. The results show that considering imperfect repair leads to an increase in replacement costs and a decrease in the optimal replacement age when considering the ALARP principle. The model applies to situations where there are conflicts of interest between maintenance management and risk; that is, cases where the aim is to reduce the cost of replacing equipment and minimize the risks. Maintenance policies must consider system reliability and the risk of accidents in systems where equipment failures represent a risk. In this context, this work proposes an age replacement policy with Bayesian imperfect repair and considers the "as low as reasonably practicable" (ALARP) principle. The policy determines the age of replacement that minimizes the long-run cost per unit time when the failure rate is ALARP. The model also supposes that failures are either minimally or perfectly repaired, depending on the skill of the maintainer. Numerical applications are performed with and without the disproportion factor in ALARP, both for infinite and one-replacement-cycle horizons. The results show that considering imperfect repair leads to an increase in replacement costs and a decrease in the optimal replacement age when considering the ALARP principle. The model applies to situations where there are conflicts of interest between maintenance management and risk; that is, cases where the aim is to reduce the cost of replacing equipment and minimize the risks.

Phil Scarf

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