Papers by Bambang Widoyoko Suwargadi
Quaternary Science Reviews, 2015
Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, 2015
Ocean-atmosphere interactions in the tropical Indo-Pacific Warm Pool are fundamental drivers of t... more Ocean-atmosphere interactions in the tropical Indo-Pacific Warm Pool are fundamental drivers of the global meridional Hadley and zonal Walker circulations. Recent research indicates that changes in sea surface temperatures and atmospheric convection in this region play important roles in modulating global climate on interannual, decadal, millennial, and even glacial-interglacial time-scales. Knowing the natural bounds of past ocean-atmosphere variability in the
Earth and Planetary Science Letters, 2014
Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, 2014
We refer to periods of subduction strain accumulation beneath the Mentawai Islands, Sumatra, as "... more We refer to periods of subduction strain accumulation beneath the Mentawai Islands, Sumatra, as "supercycles," because each culminates in a series of partial ruptures of the megathrust in its final decades. The finale of the previous supercycle comprised two giant earthquakes in 1797 and 1833 and whatever happened in between. This behavior between two great ruptures has implications for how the megathrust will behave between its more recent partial failure, during the M w 8.4 earthquake of 2007, and subsequent large ruptures. We synthesize previously published coral microatoll records and a large new coral data set to constrain not only these two giant ruptures but also the intervening interseismic megathrust behavior. We present detailed maps of coseismic uplift during the two earthquakes and of interseismic deformation during the periods 1755-1833 and 1950-2000, as well as models of the corresponding slip and coupling on the underlying megathrust. The large magnitudes we derive (M w 8.6-8.8 for 1797 and M w 8.8-8.9 for 1833) confirm that the 2007 earthquakes released only a fraction of the moment released during the previous rupture sequence. Whereas megathrust behavior leading up to the 1797 and 2007 earthquakes was similar and comparatively simple, behavior between 1797 and 1833 was markedly different and more complex: several patches of the megathrust became weakly coupled following the 1797 earthquake. We conclude that while major earthquakes generally do not involve rupture of the entire Mentawai segment, they may significantly change the state of coupling on the megathrust for decades to follow, influencing the progression of subsequent ruptures.
Quaternary Science Reviews, 2009
The Indo-Pacific Warm Pool (IPWP) is thought to play a key role in the propagation and amplificat... more The Indo-Pacific Warm Pool (IPWP) is thought to play a key role in the propagation and amplification of climate changes through its influence on the global distribution of heat and water vapour. However, little is known about past changes in the size and position of the IPWP. In this study, we use a total of 48 modern and fossil coral records from the Mentawai Islands (Sumatra, Indonesia) and Muschu/Koil Islands (Papua New Guinea) to reconstruct oscillations in the extent of the IPWP since the mid-Holocene. We show that reliable estimates of mean sea surface temperature (SST) can be obtained from fossil corals by using low-resolution Sr/Ca analysis of a suite of corals to overcome the large uncertainties associated with mean Sr/Ca-SST estimates from individual coral colonies. The coral records indicate that the southeastern and southwestern margins of the IPWP were cooler than at present between w5500 and 4300 years BP (w1.2 C AE 0.3 C) and were similarly cool before w6800 years BP. This mid-Holocene cooling was punctuated by an abrupt, short-lived shift to mean SSTs that were warmer than at present between w6600 and 6300 years BP (w1.3 C AE 0.3 C), while similarly warm conditions may have also existed after w4300 years BP. We suggest that mid-Holocene cooling at our study sites was related to contractions of the southeastern and southwestern margins of the IPWP, associated with the more northerly position of the Inter-tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) that accompanied mid-Holocene strengthening of the Asian summer monsoon. Conversely, intervals of abrupt warming appear to correspond with widespread episodes of monsoon weakening and accompanying southward migrations of the ITCZ that caused the IPWP to expand beyond our coral sites. Intervals of a strengthened Asian monsoon and cooling in the southwestern IPWP during the mid-Holocene appear to correspond with a more positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD)-like mean configuration across the tropical Indian Ocean, suggesting that the Asian monsoon-IOD interaction that exists at interannual time scales also persists over centennial to millennial scales. Associated mean changes in the Pacific ENSO modes may have also occurred during the mid-Holocene. The dynamic and inter-connected behaviour of the IPWP with tropical climate systems during the mid-Holocene highlights the fundamental importance of the warm pool region for understanding climate change throughout the tropics and beyond.
Nature Geoscience, 2009
The Australian-Indonesian summer monsoon affects rainfall variability and hence terrestrial produ... more The Australian-Indonesian summer monsoon affects rainfall variability and hence terrestrial productivity in the densely populated tropical Indo-Pacific region. It has been proposed that the main control of summer monsoon precipitation on millennial timescales is local insolation 1-3 , but unravelling the mechanisms that have influenced monsoon variability and teleconnections has proven difficult, owing to the lack of high-resolution records of past monsoon behaviour. Here we present a precisely dated reconstruction of monsoon rainfall over the past 12,000 years, based on oxygen isotope measurements from two stalagmites collected in southeast Indonesia. We show that the summer monsoon precipitation increased during the Younger Dryas cooling event, when Atlantic meridional overturning circulation was relatively weak 4 . Monsoon precipitation intensified even more rapidly from 11,000 to 7,000 years ago, when the Indonesian continental shelf was flooded by global sea-level rise 5-7 . We suggest that the intensification during the Younger Dryas cooling was caused by enhanced winter monsoon outflow from Asia and a related southward migration of the intertropical convergence zone 8 . However, the early Holocene intensification of monsoon precipitation was driven by sealevel rise, which increased the supply of moisture to the Indonesian archipelago.
Nature Communications, 2013
Nature, 2007
The Indian Ocean Dipole 1,2 (IOD)-an oscillatory mode of coupled ocean-atmosphere variability-cau... more The Indian Ocean Dipole 1,2 (IOD)-an oscillatory mode of coupled ocean-atmosphere variability-causes climatic extremes and socio-economic hardship throughout the tropical Indian Ocean region 1-5 . There is much debate about how the IOD interacts with the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Asian monsoon, and recent changes in the historic ENSO-monsoon relationship 6 raise the possibility that the properties of the IOD may also be evolving. Improving our understanding of IOD events and their climatic impacts thus requires the development of records defining IOD activity in different climatic settings, including prehistoric times when ENSO and the Asian monsoon behaved differently from the present day. Here we use coral geochemical records from the equatorial eastern Indian Ocean to reconstruct surface-ocean cooling and drought during individual IOD events over the past 6,500 years. We find that IOD events during the middle Holocene were characterized by a longer duration of strong surface ocean cooling, together with droughts that peaked later than those expected by El Niño forcing alone. Climate model simulations suggest that this enhanced cooling and drying was the result of strong cross-equatorial winds driven by the strengthened Asian monsoon of the middle Holocene. These IOD-monsoon connections imply that the socioeconomic impacts of projected future changes in Asian monsoon strength may extend throughout Australasia.
Journal of Geophysical Research, 2006
Journal of Geophysical Research, 2008
1] We quantify fore-arc deformation using fossil reefs to test the assumption commonly made in se... more 1] We quantify fore-arc deformation using fossil reefs to test the assumption commonly made in seismic cycle models that anelastic deformation of the fore arc is negligible. Elevated coral microatolls, paleoreef flats, and chenier plains show that the Sumatran outer arc island of Nias has experienced a complex pattern of relatively slow long-term uplift and subsidence during the Holocene epoch. This same island rose up to 2.9 m during the M w 8.7 Sunda megathrust rupture in 2005. The mismatch between the 2005 and Holocene uplift patterns, along with the overall low rates of Holocene deformation, reflects the dominance of elastic strain accumulation and release along this section of the Sunda outer arc high and the relatively subordinate role of upper plate deformation in accommodating long-term plate convergence. The fraction of 2005 uplift that will be retained permanently is generally <4% for sites that experienced more than 0.25 m of coseismic uplift. Average uplift rates since the mid-Holocene range from 1.5 to À0.2 mm/a and are highest on the eastern coast of Nias, where coseismic uplift was nearly zero in 2005. The pattern of long-term uplift and subsidence is consistent with slow deformation of Nias along closely spaced folds in the north and trenchward dipping back thrusts in the southeast. Low Holocene tectonic uplift rates provide for excellent geomorphic and stratigraphic preservation of the mid-Holocene relative sea level high, which was under way by $7.3 ka and persisted until $2 ka.
Journal of Geophysical Research, 2012
1] The outer-arc islands of western Sumatra rise during great megathrust earthquakes, due to larg... more 1] The outer-arc islands of western Sumatra rise during great megathrust earthquakes, due to large slip on the underlying megathrust. In contrast, the islands subsided up to a few centimeters during the recent tsunamigenic earthquake of October 2010, due to slip far updip, near the trench. Coral microatolls on one of the islands recorded a much larger subsidence, at least 35 cm, during an event in approximately A.D. 1314. We calculate a suite of slip models, slightly deeper and/or larger than the 2010 event, that are consistent with this large amount of subsidence. Sea level records from older coral microatolls suggest that these events occur at least once every millennium, but likely far less frequently than their great downdip neighbors. The revelation that shallow slip events are important contributors to the seismic cycle of the Mentawai segment further complicates our understanding of this subduction megathrust and our assessment of the region's exposure to seismic and tsunami hazards.
Journal of Geophysical Research, 2012
Journal of Geophysical Research, 2012
1] The M w 7.8 October 2010 Mentawai, Indonesia, earthquake was a "tsunami earthquake," a rare ty... more 1] The M w 7.8 October 2010 Mentawai, Indonesia, earthquake was a "tsunami earthquake," a rare type of earthquake that generates a tsunami much larger than expected based on the seismic magnitude. It produced a locally devastating tsunami, with runup commonly in excess of 6 m. We examine this event using a combination of high-rate GPS data, from instruments located on the nearby islands, and a tsunami field survey. The GPS displacement time series are deficient in high-frequency energy, and show small coseismic displacements (<22 cm horizontal and <4 cm subsidence). The field survey shows that maximum tsunami runup was >16 m. Our modeling results show that the combination of the small GPS displacements and large tsunami can only be explained by high fault slip at very shallow depths, far from the islands and close to the oceanic trench. Inelastic uplift of trench sediments likely contributed to the size of the tsunami. Recent results for the 2011 M w 9.0 Tohoko-Oki earthquake have also shown shallow fault slip, but the results from our study, which involves a smaller earthquake, provide much stronger constraints on how shallow the rupture can be, with the majority of slip for the Mentawai earthquake occurring at depths of <6 km. This result challenges the conventional wisdom that the shallow tips of subduction megathrusts are aseismic, and therefore raises important questions both about the mechanical properties of the shallow fault zone and the potential seismic and tsunami hazard of this shallow region. Citation: Hill, E. M., et al. (2012), The 2010 M w 7.8 Mentawai earthquake: Very shallow source of a rare tsunami earthquake determined from tsunami field survey and near-field GPS data,
Journal of Geophysical Research, 2012
Journal of Geophysical Research, 2010
Journal of Geophysical Research, 2007
1] The geomorphology and internal stratigraphy of modern coral microatolls show that all the oute... more 1] The geomorphology and internal stratigraphy of modern coral microatolls show that all the outer arc Mentawai islands of West Sumatra have been subsiding over the past several decades. These same islands rose as much as 3 m during the giant megathrust earthquakes of 1797 and 1833, and the current subsidence probably reflects strain accumulation that will lead to future large earthquakes. Average subsidence rates over the past half century vary from 2 to 14 mm yr À1 and increase southwestward, toward the subduction trench. The pattern is consistent with rates of subsidence measured by a sparse network of continuously recording Global Positioning System (cGPS) stations and with locking of a 400-km-long section of the underlying subduction megathrust, between about 1°S and 4°S. This record of subsidence and tilting, extending nearly a century into the past, implies that the region is advancing toward the occurrence of another giant earthquake. However, evidence of episodic rather than steady subsidence reflects a behavior that is more complex than simple elastic strain accumulation and relief. Most prominent of these episodes is an extensive emergence/subsidence couplet in about 1962, which may be the result of rapid, aseismic slip on the megathrust, between the islands and the trench. Lower subsidence rates recorded by the corals since about 1985 may reflect failure on many small patches within the locked section of the megathrust.
Journal of Geophysical Research, 2004
1] Radiocarbon ( 14 C) in the skeletal aragonite of annually banded corals track radiocarbon conc... more 1] Radiocarbon ( 14 C) in the skeletal aragonite of annually banded corals track radiocarbon concentrations in dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) in surface seawater. As a result of nuclear weapons testing in the 1950s, oceanic uptake of excess 14 C in the atmosphere has increased the contrast between surface and deep ocean 14 C concentrations. We present accelerator mass spectrometric (AMS) measurements of 14 C/ 12 C ratios (D 14 C) in Porites corals from the Mentawai Islands, Sumatra (0°S, 98°E) and Watamu, Kenya (3°S, 39°E) to document the temporal and spatial evolution of the 14 C zonal gradient in the tropical Indian Ocean. The rise in D 14 C in the Sumatra coral, in response to the maximum in nuclear weapons testing, is delayed by 2-3 years relative to the rise in coral D 14 C from the coast of Kenya. Kenya coral D 14 C values rise quickly because surface waters are in prolonged contact with the atmosphere. In contrast, wind-induced upwelling and rapid mixing along the coast of Sumatra entrains 14 C-depleted water from the subsurface, which dilutes the effect of the uptake of bomb-produced 14 C by the surface ocean. Bimonthly AMS D 14 C measurements on the Mentawai coral reveal mainly interannual variability with minor seasonal variability. Singular spectrum analysis of the Sumatra coral D 14 C record reveals a significant 3-year periodicity. These results lend support to the concept that interannual variability in Indian Ocean upwelling and sea surface temperatures is related to ENSO-like teleconnections over the Indo-Pacific basin.
Uploads
Papers by Bambang Widoyoko Suwargadi