Department of Political Science, The Florida State …, 1998
Theory: Two expected utility theories and one psychological/resource mobilization theory of the i... more Theory: Two expected utility theories and one psychological/resource mobilization theory of the impact of repression on dissent are tested in this study. Hypotheses: Lichbach (1987) hypothesizes that dissidents will substitute violent protest for nonviolent protest behavior (and vice versa) when confronted with repression. Gupta, Singh, and Sprague (1993) put forth a contextual argument: repression spurs violence in democracies, but high levels of repression are effective in authoritarian regimes. Rasler ( 1996) contends that timing matters: repression is effective in the short run, but spurs protest in the long run.
This essay makes a provocative case against the study of 'ethnic conflict' as a special subset of... more This essay makes a provocative case against the study of 'ethnic conflict' as a special subset of political conflict. It pushes against the 'silo-ing' of conflict studies that exists in which 'specialists' study 'civil war', 'counter-insurgency', 'ethnic conflict', 'terrorism', etc. It calls for theories and hypothesis tests drawn from frameworks of political conflict that can explain everything from quiescence that is seen in contemporary Syria. My reaction to the study of 'ethnic' conflict 1 is that it is generally a bad idea. That is, I am concerned that despite the widespread recognition that ethnic identity is socially constructed , our continued use of the concept belies an essentialist approach that is ultimately counterproductive. Put plainly, by studying ethnic conflict as a 'thing apart' we will obscure more than we will illuminate. Why? Let us begin generally and ask: 'Why and how does political conflict among humans occur?' The most simple answers are: over a difference of interests, and via the collective use of coercion by one group against another. Studies of human conflict thus must (implicitly or explicitly) address two issues: (1) what interests divide groups of people and (2) are both groups willing to mobilize to defend/press their claims? To those familiar with the literature circa the 1970s it will be apparent that I am strongly influenced by the work of both Ted Robert Gurr (who emphasized conflict of interest) and Charles Tilly (who emphasized collective action). This position is valuable because of its claim to generality: quiescence induced by repression can be explained, as can harmony (if it exists), as well as the full range of observed dissident ,¼. state coercion between those two poles. I am unaware of alternative theoretical first principles that can also account for the full scope of human political conflict. When we focus our attention on a subset of mobilized conflict, such as ethnic conflict, we draw attention away from the full range of human political conflict, and that is more likely to be counterproductive than productive. Is it necessarily harmful to argue that there is a subset of human conflict that is mobilized over an ethnic cleavage? I argue that it is unless we explicitly note that we are
Private information characteristics like resolve and audience costs are powerful influences over ... more Private information characteristics like resolve and audience costs are powerful influences over strategic international behavior, especially crisis bargaining. As a consequence, states face asymmetric information when interacting with one another and will presumably try to learn about each others' private characteristics by observing each others' behavior. A satisfying statistical treatment would account for the existence of asymmetric information and model the learning process. This study develops a formal and statistical framework for incomplete information games that we term the Bayesian Quantal Response Equilibrium Model (BQRE model). Our BQRE model offers three advantages over existing work: it directly incorporates asymmetric information into the statistical model's structure, estimates the influence of private information characteristics on behavior, and mimics the temporal learning process that we believe takes place in international politics.
Researchers frequently face applied situations where their measurement of a binary outcome suffer... more Researchers frequently face applied situations where their measurement of a binary outcome suffers from bias. Social desirability bias in survey work is the most widely appreciated circumstance, but the strategic incentives of human beings similarly induce bias in many measures outside of survey research (e.g., whether the absence of an armed attack indicates a country's satisfaction with the status quo or a calculation that the likely costs of war outweigh the likely benefits). In these circumstances the data we are able to observe do not reflect the distribution we wish to observe. This study introduces a statistical model that permits researchers to model the process that produces the bias, the split population logit (SPopLogit) model. It further presents a Monte Carlo simulation that demonstrates the effectiveness of SPopLogit, and then reanalyzes a study of sexual infidelity to illustrate the richness of the quantities of (empirical and theoretical) interest that can be estimated with the model. Stata ado files that can be used to invoke SPopLogit, as well as batch files illustrating how to simulate commonly reported quantities of interest, are available for download from the WWW. The authors close by briefly identifying just a few of the many types of research projects that will benefit from abandoning logit and probit models in favor of SPopLogit. * Working Draft. We thank Will Lowe and Bill Reed for their encouragement and comments on this project. have also given us helpful comments on this project. We also acknowledge the Florida State University shared High-Performance Computing facility and staff for contributions to results presented in this study. To obtain the code needed to estimate the SPopLogit using Stata, please visit http://andybeger.wordpress.com/2011/02/03/split-population-logit/. We are also developing an implementation of the SPopLogit model in R, which will be made available online at
Objective. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change predicts that climate change will intens... more Objective. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change predicts that climate change will intensify during the 21st century. The exact distribution of impacts will likely be complex in nature. Although some areas may exhibit benefits, many areas will likely experience environmental decline. The objective of this article is to answer the following question: What are the potential implications of deteriorating environmental conditions for human migration? This is not an easy question to answer because the full effects of climate change are not yet completely evident. Yet by studying the impact of environmental forces on migration in recent decades, we can offer some insight to this question. Methods. In implementing this approach, we employ theoretical and empirical methods. Our theoretical model suggests that environmental degradation should promote out-migration from affected areas, all other things being equal. To test this prediction empirically, we conduct a large-N statistical analysis focusing on the role of several environmental factors in emigration to developed countries. Our empirical sample covers the late 1980s and the 1990s. Results. The empirical results suggest that environmental decline plays a statistically significant role in out-migration, pushing people to leave their homes and move to other countries. Conclusions. In the conclusions section of this article, we evaluate the policy implications of these findings for developed countries in the context of climate change and national security.
Abstract Participation in organized violent collective action against a government carries signif... more Abstract Participation in organized violent collective action against a government carries significant penalties should one be apprehended. Further, because such actions generally pursue collective goods, the participants will receive that good (if the action is successful) regardless of whether they participate. The free-rider hypothesis suggests that rational people will forego partici pation in large" N" collective action, unless they receive side payments of some kind. Yet, large numbers of people have periodically engaged in the ...
Private information characteristics like resolve and audience costs are powerful influences over ... more Private information characteristics like resolve and audience costs are powerful influences over strategic international behavior, especially crisis bargaining. As a consequence, states face asymmetric information when interacting with one another and will presumably try to learn about each others' private characteristics by observing each others' behavior. A satisfying statistical treatment would account for the existence of asymmetric information and model the learning process. This study develops a formal and statistical framework for incomplete information games that we term the Bayesian Quantal Response Equilibrium Model (BQRE model). Our BQRE model offers three advantages over existing work: it directly incorporates asymmetric information into the statistical model's structure, estimates the influence of private information characteristics on behavior, and mimics the temporal learning process that we believe takes place in international politics.
How best to classify event counts of directed dyadic foreign policy behavior and how best to mode... more How best to classify event counts of directed dyadic foreign policy behavior and how best to model them are points of disagreement among researchers. Should such series be modeled as unit roots ("perfect" memory) or as stationary ("short" memory)? It is demonstrated that the dichotomous choice between unit root (I(1)) and level stationarity (I(0)) is overly restrictive. The intermediate (and more general) possibility of fractional integration (0 < I < 1), a concept proven useful in studies of aggregate opinion, is applied. Results show that fractional integration is extremely common and that error correction mechanisms (ECMs) can still be appropriate in the absence of unit-root series. Fractional ECMs are used in action-reaction models of bilateral relationships to demonstrate this. Given the frequency of fractional integration, its flexibility, and the problems encountered when ignoring it, scholars should incorporate fractional integration techniques into their models.
ABSTRACT Why would people abandon their homes in favor of an uncertain life elsewhere? The short ... more ABSTRACT Why would people abandon their homes in favor of an uncertain life elsewhere? The short answer, of course, is violence. More specifically, the authors contend that people monitor the violent behavior of both the government and dissidents and assess the threat such behavior poses to their lives, physical person, and liberty. The greater the threat posed by the behavior of the government and dissidents, the larger the number of forced migrants a country will produce. To test hypotheses drawn from this argument the authors use a global sample of countries over more than forty years. Their findings are held to be consistent with their argument, showing that violent behavior has a substantially larger impact on forced migration than variables such as the type of political institution or the average size of the economy.
This study examines how the politics of coalition government formation affect foreign exchange ma... more This study examines how the politics of coalition government formation affect foreign exchange markets in Western European parliamentary democracies. Existing studies suggest that ex ante uncertainty associated with the formation of coalition governments increases exchange rate volatility. We develop a formal model that places currency traders at the center and examines how traders respond to the uncertainty produced by coalition bargaining in parliamentary democracies. In sharp contrast to the literature, the model shows that traders rationally respond to uncertainty about the potential coalition government that may form and expected policies that will be implemented by the coalition government by reducing the volume of trading they do in that currency and that this, in turn, leads to a decline in the mean and volatility of exchange rates. Estimates from an exchange rate series of 10 Western European parliamentary democracies statistically support the claim that exchange rate volatility is negatively associated with traders' ex ante uncertainty about the potential coalition government that may form.
&amp;amp;amp;#x27;&amp;amp;amp;#x27;Information politics&amp;amp;amp;#x27;&amp;am... more &amp;amp;amp;#x27;&amp;amp;amp;#x27;Information politics&amp;amp;amp;#x27;&amp;amp;amp;#x27;INGOs such as Amnesty International have incentives to maintain their credibility by carefully vetting information about rights abuses committed by governments. But they are also strategic actors that may inflate allegations of abuse to fulfill organizational imperatives. This raises an intriguing question: When are INGOs more likely to exaggerate their allegations? In answer to this question, we argue that news media reporting pressures INGOs to comment for organizational reasons, even if the information available to them is ...
A common public perception in OECD countries suggests that refugees are mostly ''economic migrant... more A common public perception in OECD countries suggests that refugees are mostly ''economic migrants'' in search of a better standard of living. Does the empirical record belie this belief? The authors explore that question within a rationalist approach using aggregate-level data that allow them to explore a variety of other covariates of the choice to seek refuge in one country relative to another. In addition to wages, they consider fear of persecution, culture, and the costs of relocation. The results are at odds with the ''bogus refugees'' image: the effect of average wages is mediated by proximity such that higher average wages are associated with fewer refugees, except among bordering countries. In addition, refugees seek asylum in neighboring countries, especially those at war with their own country or those experiencing a civil war. Those who seek refuge in countries other than their neighbors follow colonial ties.
The Ill-Treatment and Torture (ITT) Data Collection Project uses content analysis to measure alle... more The Ill-Treatment and Torture (ITT) Data Collection Project uses content analysis to measure allegations of government ill-treatment and torture made by Amnesty International (AI) from 1995 to 2005. ITT's country-year (CY) data quantifies AI allegations about the incidence of ill-treatment and torture at the country-year unit of observation and further across different responsible government agents and across different econo-socio-political groups of alleged victims. This paper introduces the CY data set, suggests a number of theoretically motivated questions that can be explored using the ITT country-year data, and describes quantitative patterns likely to be of interest to researchers focused on the study of international nongovernmental organizations (INGOs) and human rights.
Although scholars have made considerable progress on a number of important research questions by ... more Although scholars have made considerable progress on a number of important research questions by relaxing assumptions commonly used to divide political science into subfields, rigid boundaries remain in some contexts. In this essay, we suggest that the assumption that international politics is characterized by anarchy whereas domestic politics is characterized by hierarchy continues to divide research on the conditions under which governments are constrained by courts, international or domestic. We contend that we will learn more about this process, and do so more quickly, if we relax the assumption and recognize the substantial similarities between domestic and international research on this question. In making this argument, we review four recent books that highlight contemporary theories of the extent to which domestic and international law binds states are bound by law, and discuss whether a rigid boundary between international and domestic scholarship can be sustained on either theoretical or empirical grounds.
In this study we explore why persons flee their homes to become refugees and internally displaced... more In this study we explore why persons flee their homes to become refugees and internally displaced persons. We contend that individuals will tend to flee when the integrity of their person is threatened. Further, we argue that they will flee toward countries where they expect conditions to be better. We conduct statistical analyses using fixed effects least squares, on a pooled cross-sectional time-series data set, consisting of data from 129 countries for the years 1964-1989. Our findings support the conclusion that threats to personal integrity are of primary importance in leading people to abandon their homes. Measures of state threats to personal integrity, dissident threats to personal integrity, and joint state-dissident threats each have statistically significant and substantively important effects on migrant production. We also find that countries making moves toward democracy tend to have greater number of forced migrants, once other factors are considered. We conclude the analysis by identifying several lucrative areas for further investigation.
Department of Political Science, The Florida State …, 1998
Theory: Two expected utility theories and one psychological/resource mobilization theory of the i... more Theory: Two expected utility theories and one psychological/resource mobilization theory of the impact of repression on dissent are tested in this study. Hypotheses: Lichbach (1987) hypothesizes that dissidents will substitute violent protest for nonviolent protest behavior (and vice versa) when confronted with repression. Gupta, Singh, and Sprague (1993) put forth a contextual argument: repression spurs violence in democracies, but high levels of repression are effective in authoritarian regimes. Rasler ( 1996) contends that timing matters: repression is effective in the short run, but spurs protest in the long run.
This essay makes a provocative case against the study of 'ethnic conflict' as a special subset of... more This essay makes a provocative case against the study of 'ethnic conflict' as a special subset of political conflict. It pushes against the 'silo-ing' of conflict studies that exists in which 'specialists' study 'civil war', 'counter-insurgency', 'ethnic conflict', 'terrorism', etc. It calls for theories and hypothesis tests drawn from frameworks of political conflict that can explain everything from quiescence that is seen in contemporary Syria. My reaction to the study of 'ethnic' conflict 1 is that it is generally a bad idea. That is, I am concerned that despite the widespread recognition that ethnic identity is socially constructed , our continued use of the concept belies an essentialist approach that is ultimately counterproductive. Put plainly, by studying ethnic conflict as a 'thing apart' we will obscure more than we will illuminate. Why? Let us begin generally and ask: 'Why and how does political conflict among humans occur?' The most simple answers are: over a difference of interests, and via the collective use of coercion by one group against another. Studies of human conflict thus must (implicitly or explicitly) address two issues: (1) what interests divide groups of people and (2) are both groups willing to mobilize to defend/press their claims? To those familiar with the literature circa the 1970s it will be apparent that I am strongly influenced by the work of both Ted Robert Gurr (who emphasized conflict of interest) and Charles Tilly (who emphasized collective action). This position is valuable because of its claim to generality: quiescence induced by repression can be explained, as can harmony (if it exists), as well as the full range of observed dissident ,¼. state coercion between those two poles. I am unaware of alternative theoretical first principles that can also account for the full scope of human political conflict. When we focus our attention on a subset of mobilized conflict, such as ethnic conflict, we draw attention away from the full range of human political conflict, and that is more likely to be counterproductive than productive. Is it necessarily harmful to argue that there is a subset of human conflict that is mobilized over an ethnic cleavage? I argue that it is unless we explicitly note that we are
Private information characteristics like resolve and audience costs are powerful influences over ... more Private information characteristics like resolve and audience costs are powerful influences over strategic international behavior, especially crisis bargaining. As a consequence, states face asymmetric information when interacting with one another and will presumably try to learn about each others' private characteristics by observing each others' behavior. A satisfying statistical treatment would account for the existence of asymmetric information and model the learning process. This study develops a formal and statistical framework for incomplete information games that we term the Bayesian Quantal Response Equilibrium Model (BQRE model). Our BQRE model offers three advantages over existing work: it directly incorporates asymmetric information into the statistical model's structure, estimates the influence of private information characteristics on behavior, and mimics the temporal learning process that we believe takes place in international politics.
Researchers frequently face applied situations where their measurement of a binary outcome suffer... more Researchers frequently face applied situations where their measurement of a binary outcome suffers from bias. Social desirability bias in survey work is the most widely appreciated circumstance, but the strategic incentives of human beings similarly induce bias in many measures outside of survey research (e.g., whether the absence of an armed attack indicates a country's satisfaction with the status quo or a calculation that the likely costs of war outweigh the likely benefits). In these circumstances the data we are able to observe do not reflect the distribution we wish to observe. This study introduces a statistical model that permits researchers to model the process that produces the bias, the split population logit (SPopLogit) model. It further presents a Monte Carlo simulation that demonstrates the effectiveness of SPopLogit, and then reanalyzes a study of sexual infidelity to illustrate the richness of the quantities of (empirical and theoretical) interest that can be estimated with the model. Stata ado files that can be used to invoke SPopLogit, as well as batch files illustrating how to simulate commonly reported quantities of interest, are available for download from the WWW. The authors close by briefly identifying just a few of the many types of research projects that will benefit from abandoning logit and probit models in favor of SPopLogit. * Working Draft. We thank Will Lowe and Bill Reed for their encouragement and comments on this project. have also given us helpful comments on this project. We also acknowledge the Florida State University shared High-Performance Computing facility and staff for contributions to results presented in this study. To obtain the code needed to estimate the SPopLogit using Stata, please visit http://andybeger.wordpress.com/2011/02/03/split-population-logit/. We are also developing an implementation of the SPopLogit model in R, which will be made available online at
Objective. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change predicts that climate change will intens... more Objective. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change predicts that climate change will intensify during the 21st century. The exact distribution of impacts will likely be complex in nature. Although some areas may exhibit benefits, many areas will likely experience environmental decline. The objective of this article is to answer the following question: What are the potential implications of deteriorating environmental conditions for human migration? This is not an easy question to answer because the full effects of climate change are not yet completely evident. Yet by studying the impact of environmental forces on migration in recent decades, we can offer some insight to this question. Methods. In implementing this approach, we employ theoretical and empirical methods. Our theoretical model suggests that environmental degradation should promote out-migration from affected areas, all other things being equal. To test this prediction empirically, we conduct a large-N statistical analysis focusing on the role of several environmental factors in emigration to developed countries. Our empirical sample covers the late 1980s and the 1990s. Results. The empirical results suggest that environmental decline plays a statistically significant role in out-migration, pushing people to leave their homes and move to other countries. Conclusions. In the conclusions section of this article, we evaluate the policy implications of these findings for developed countries in the context of climate change and national security.
Abstract Participation in organized violent collective action against a government carries signif... more Abstract Participation in organized violent collective action against a government carries significant penalties should one be apprehended. Further, because such actions generally pursue collective goods, the participants will receive that good (if the action is successful) regardless of whether they participate. The free-rider hypothesis suggests that rational people will forego partici pation in large&amp;amp;amp;amp;quot; N&amp;amp;amp;amp;quot; collective action, unless they receive side payments of some kind. Yet, large numbers of people have periodically engaged in the ...
Private information characteristics like resolve and audience costs are powerful influences over ... more Private information characteristics like resolve and audience costs are powerful influences over strategic international behavior, especially crisis bargaining. As a consequence, states face asymmetric information when interacting with one another and will presumably try to learn about each others' private characteristics by observing each others' behavior. A satisfying statistical treatment would account for the existence of asymmetric information and model the learning process. This study develops a formal and statistical framework for incomplete information games that we term the Bayesian Quantal Response Equilibrium Model (BQRE model). Our BQRE model offers three advantages over existing work: it directly incorporates asymmetric information into the statistical model's structure, estimates the influence of private information characteristics on behavior, and mimics the temporal learning process that we believe takes place in international politics.
How best to classify event counts of directed dyadic foreign policy behavior and how best to mode... more How best to classify event counts of directed dyadic foreign policy behavior and how best to model them are points of disagreement among researchers. Should such series be modeled as unit roots ("perfect" memory) or as stationary ("short" memory)? It is demonstrated that the dichotomous choice between unit root (I(1)) and level stationarity (I(0)) is overly restrictive. The intermediate (and more general) possibility of fractional integration (0 < I < 1), a concept proven useful in studies of aggregate opinion, is applied. Results show that fractional integration is extremely common and that error correction mechanisms (ECMs) can still be appropriate in the absence of unit-root series. Fractional ECMs are used in action-reaction models of bilateral relationships to demonstrate this. Given the frequency of fractional integration, its flexibility, and the problems encountered when ignoring it, scholars should incorporate fractional integration techniques into their models.
ABSTRACT Why would people abandon their homes in favor of an uncertain life elsewhere? The short ... more ABSTRACT Why would people abandon their homes in favor of an uncertain life elsewhere? The short answer, of course, is violence. More specifically, the authors contend that people monitor the violent behavior of both the government and dissidents and assess the threat such behavior poses to their lives, physical person, and liberty. The greater the threat posed by the behavior of the government and dissidents, the larger the number of forced migrants a country will produce. To test hypotheses drawn from this argument the authors use a global sample of countries over more than forty years. Their findings are held to be consistent with their argument, showing that violent behavior has a substantially larger impact on forced migration than variables such as the type of political institution or the average size of the economy.
This study examines how the politics of coalition government formation affect foreign exchange ma... more This study examines how the politics of coalition government formation affect foreign exchange markets in Western European parliamentary democracies. Existing studies suggest that ex ante uncertainty associated with the formation of coalition governments increases exchange rate volatility. We develop a formal model that places currency traders at the center and examines how traders respond to the uncertainty produced by coalition bargaining in parliamentary democracies. In sharp contrast to the literature, the model shows that traders rationally respond to uncertainty about the potential coalition government that may form and expected policies that will be implemented by the coalition government by reducing the volume of trading they do in that currency and that this, in turn, leads to a decline in the mean and volatility of exchange rates. Estimates from an exchange rate series of 10 Western European parliamentary democracies statistically support the claim that exchange rate volatility is negatively associated with traders' ex ante uncertainty about the potential coalition government that may form.
&amp;amp;amp;#x27;&amp;amp;amp;#x27;Information politics&amp;amp;amp;#x27;&amp;am... more &amp;amp;amp;#x27;&amp;amp;amp;#x27;Information politics&amp;amp;amp;#x27;&amp;amp;amp;#x27;INGOs such as Amnesty International have incentives to maintain their credibility by carefully vetting information about rights abuses committed by governments. But they are also strategic actors that may inflate allegations of abuse to fulfill organizational imperatives. This raises an intriguing question: When are INGOs more likely to exaggerate their allegations? In answer to this question, we argue that news media reporting pressures INGOs to comment for organizational reasons, even if the information available to them is ...
A common public perception in OECD countries suggests that refugees are mostly ''economic migrant... more A common public perception in OECD countries suggests that refugees are mostly ''economic migrants'' in search of a better standard of living. Does the empirical record belie this belief? The authors explore that question within a rationalist approach using aggregate-level data that allow them to explore a variety of other covariates of the choice to seek refuge in one country relative to another. In addition to wages, they consider fear of persecution, culture, and the costs of relocation. The results are at odds with the ''bogus refugees'' image: the effect of average wages is mediated by proximity such that higher average wages are associated with fewer refugees, except among bordering countries. In addition, refugees seek asylum in neighboring countries, especially those at war with their own country or those experiencing a civil war. Those who seek refuge in countries other than their neighbors follow colonial ties.
The Ill-Treatment and Torture (ITT) Data Collection Project uses content analysis to measure alle... more The Ill-Treatment and Torture (ITT) Data Collection Project uses content analysis to measure allegations of government ill-treatment and torture made by Amnesty International (AI) from 1995 to 2005. ITT's country-year (CY) data quantifies AI allegations about the incidence of ill-treatment and torture at the country-year unit of observation and further across different responsible government agents and across different econo-socio-political groups of alleged victims. This paper introduces the CY data set, suggests a number of theoretically motivated questions that can be explored using the ITT country-year data, and describes quantitative patterns likely to be of interest to researchers focused on the study of international nongovernmental organizations (INGOs) and human rights.
Although scholars have made considerable progress on a number of important research questions by ... more Although scholars have made considerable progress on a number of important research questions by relaxing assumptions commonly used to divide political science into subfields, rigid boundaries remain in some contexts. In this essay, we suggest that the assumption that international politics is characterized by anarchy whereas domestic politics is characterized by hierarchy continues to divide research on the conditions under which governments are constrained by courts, international or domestic. We contend that we will learn more about this process, and do so more quickly, if we relax the assumption and recognize the substantial similarities between domestic and international research on this question. In making this argument, we review four recent books that highlight contemporary theories of the extent to which domestic and international law binds states are bound by law, and discuss whether a rigid boundary between international and domestic scholarship can be sustained on either theoretical or empirical grounds.
In this study we explore why persons flee their homes to become refugees and internally displaced... more In this study we explore why persons flee their homes to become refugees and internally displaced persons. We contend that individuals will tend to flee when the integrity of their person is threatened. Further, we argue that they will flee toward countries where they expect conditions to be better. We conduct statistical analyses using fixed effects least squares, on a pooled cross-sectional time-series data set, consisting of data from 129 countries for the years 1964-1989. Our findings support the conclusion that threats to personal integrity are of primary importance in leading people to abandon their homes. Measures of state threats to personal integrity, dissident threats to personal integrity, and joint state-dissident threats each have statistically significant and substantively important effects on migrant production. We also find that countries making moves toward democracy tend to have greater number of forced migrants, once other factors are considered. We conclude the analysis by identifying several lucrative areas for further investigation.
Uploads
Papers by Will H Moore