The study investigated relationships between agricultural policy output (proxy by the agricultura... more The study investigated relationships between agricultural policy output (proxy by the agricultural productivity index, agricultural GDP/total GDP and crop productivity index) and output of industrial sector (proxy by the industrial capacity utilization rate) from 1970 to 2012 period in Nigeria. The study employed time series variables obtained from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), National Bureau of Statistics and Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO). Augmented Dickey-Fuller unit root test was conducted on the specified time series, and the result showed that all non-growth rate series were integrated of order one, while growth rate series were stationary at level. The two-step Engle Granger method was employed to test for the presence of co-integration among specified variables. The result revealed that variables were not co-integrated. To avoid spurious regression, the specified models for non-growth rate series were estimated at first difference of the log variables.
The study examined the relationship between agricultural land use and population growth rates fro... more The study examined the relationship between agricultural land use and population growth rates from 1961 to 2018 in Nigeria. Secondary data were obtained from Food and Agricultural Organization and the World Bank. Descriptive statistics, trend equation and correlation analyses were used. Findings revealed that agricultural and arable land utilization grew at the rate of 0.62% and 0.72%, respectively per annum; while the total population growth rate stood at 2.57%. Also, urban and rural population grew at a rate of 4.75% and 1.67% respectively. In addition, the agricultural and arable land utilization rates had significant positive correlations with the total population, urban and rural population. Besides, the findings revealed that, agricultural land (to total land ratio) has continued to increase and currently averaged at 68.78% indicating massive land expansion put under agricultural used. Findings revealed that, most arable crop outputs increase majorly from land expansion rather...
Asian Journal of Agriculture and Rural Development
The study is an attempt to examine the influence of macroeconomic variables on the growth of fish... more The study is an attempt to examine the influence of macroeconomic variables on the growth of fishery sub-sector in Nigeria. The study covers the period from 1961 and 2017. The results apparently revealed that aquaculture production, artisanal fish production, and total fish production, grew exponentially at the rate of 8.90%, 3.75%, and 4.25% respectively. To be more precise, various other factors like, demand shocks, food imports, and variable exchange rate, affected artisanal fish production in the long-run; while exchange rate and demand shocks were significant in the short-run period. For the aquaculture production, demand shocks, credit potential, inflation, food imports, and exchange rate were some significant policy variables in the long-run; whereas demand shocks and exchange rate were also significant in the short-run period. Finally, as far as the total fish production is concerned, demand shocks, food imports, and exchange rate were significantly trending variables, both ...
The study focused on the determination of variances among consumer prices of rice (local white), ... more The study focused on the determination of variances among consumer prices of rice (local white), beans (white) and garri (yellow) in Watts, Okurikang and 8 Miles markets in southern zone of Cross River State. Completely randomized design was used to test the research hypothesis. Comparing the consumer prices of rice, beans and garri in the three markets; rice and garri had insignificant differences in their consumer prices while beans consumer prices had significant differences between Okurikang market and the other two markets. The results imply perfect information flow in garri and rice markets and hence high possibility of a perfectly competitive market structure for these products. The reverse is the case for beans market. Policies on increased local production of rice, garri and beans as well as improved marketing infrastructures were recommended as these would help increase sellers profit while maximizing consumers' benefits.
The study analyzed economic capacity utilization rates in the sugar industry for the period 1970 ... more The study analyzed economic capacity utilization rates in the sugar industry for the period 1970 to 2010 in Nigeria. Secondary data obtained from sugar firms; Central Bank of Nigeria; National Bureau of Statistics and the Federal Ministry of Finance were used in the study. Stochastic Cobb-Douglas cost functions for the sugar industry were estimated from which indices of economic capacity utilization rates were obtained. Trend in the economic capacity utilization rate showed undulated pattern with an average index of 60.30% and excess economic capacity of 39.70%. Multiple-regression of various forms based on the ordinary least squares technique was used to determine factors that influence the performance indicators in the industry. Empirical results revealed that economic capacity utilization rates in the sugar industry was influenced by the inflation rate, per capita real GDP, energy consumption of the industry, federal government expenditure on the sugar industry and the period of liberalization. The result of the regression and descriptive analyses revealed that the sugar industry in Nigeria was constrained by insufficient production inputs. Policy measures aimed at reduction or maintaining a steady or less fluctuated inflation rate in the country, expansionary aggregate demand, increase funding to agencies that have direct dealings with the sugar production and adequate provision of electricity to the industry as well as the adoption of the liberalization industrial policy on sugar industry were recommended.
There is surfeit of evidence on increase poverty and low agricultural productivity among majority... more There is surfeit of evidence on increase poverty and low agricultural productivity among majority of rural dwellers in Nigeria. Researches have established an inverse linked between rural poverty and sustainable households’ asset based. Agricultural production, being the major livelihood source for majority of rural dwellers needs considerable asset or capital for it to be considered as sustainable. Based on this assertion, the study assesses the sustainable livelihood assets of farming households in Abak Local Government area of Akwa Ibom state in Southern region of Nigeria. A multi-stage sampling technique was employed to select 110 farming household heads in the study area. Structured questionnaires were used to collect cross sectional data from respondents. Descriptive tools were used to analyse data collected. The socioeconomic features of respondents revealed a sample population that is fast ageing, dominated by married male and moderately educated. Result also showed that, re...
The study had established empirical relationships between remittances and indicators of agricultu... more The study had established empirical relationships between remittances and indicators of agricultural productivity (agricultural GDP/total GDP, Agricultural productivity index and crop productivity index) in Nigeria. Augmented Dickey-Fuller unit root tests were conducted on the specified time series to ascertain the variables' order of integration. The trend analysis revealed that, remittances, agricultural GDP, agricultural productivity index and crop productivity index have positive exponential growth rates, but remittances grew at a faster rate than others. It was discovered that, remittance has linear and symmetric relationships with agricultural productivity index and crop productivity index in Nigeria. However, there was no significant relationship among growth rates of remittances, agricultural GDP, agricultural productivity index and crop productivity index in Nigeria. The bilateral Granger causality test indicates unilateral relationship between nominal value of agricultural GDP and remittance inflow in the country. The result of the co-integration test revealed the presence of co-integration among specified variables. Agricultural productivity index and crop productivity index have significant relationships with remittance in the long run. Also, agricultural GDP and agricultural productivity index exhibited significant association with remittances in the short run.
Russian Journal of Agricultural and Socio-Economic Sciences, 2016
Most government agricultural programmes in developing countries are designed following the politi... more Most government agricultural programmes in developing countries are designed following the political ideology of the ruling class and farmers have mixed responses regarding participation. The top-bottom approach adopted in designing these programmes further created dissatisfaction among farmers. Achieving the objectives of these programmes will depend on the level of farmers' participation. Premised on this, the study determined factors that influence farmers' participation in government agricultural programmes in the Southern region of Nigeria. Data were collected from 390 farmers in the study area. Combinations of sampling methods were used to collect data. The Logit model estimates revealed that, household size, dependent ratio, farming experience, years in social organization, land ownership, awareness index, membership in political party, non-farm income, visit by extension agent, male composition in farming population and level of formal education were positive determinants of farmers' participation in government agricultural programmes in the study area. On the contrary, farm income and bureaucracy bottleneck involved in these programmes were negative determinants. Perceived constraints to farmers' participation were; bureaucracy involve; insufficient land for implementation, high transport cost and low awareness. In order to increase farmers' participation in agricultural based programme in the region, it is recommended that, government should reclaim marginal land and create a policy that will increase land ownership by resource poor farmers in the region. Farmers should be encouraged to form social groups. Massive awareness campaign should be mounted to sensitize farmers on government agricultural programmes in the region. Also, such programmes should be politically neutral and design following bottom-up approach.
Agricultural price behaviour in the long run depends on several factors ranging from the socioeco... more Agricultural price behaviour in the long run depends on several factors ranging from the socioeconomic , environmental and political environment among others. This study tested for the long run price adjustment mechanism between the producer price of raw cassava in the rural market and retailed price of its derivatives in urban market in the Southern region of Nigeria. The study was built from the Engle-Granger to Enders-Siklos methodologies to verify the symmetric and asymmetric price relationship between the source price (raw cassava) and its derivative prices (garri, fufu, chip, starch and flour) along the food chain. The result confirmed significant short and long run market integration between the source and its derivatives. However, the source price equilibrium in the long run followed asymmetric adjustment with respect to urban prices of fufu and cassava flour; whereas symmetric adjustment was obtained with respect to prices of garri, cassava chip and starch. It is suggested that, the cassava market/industry in the study area has problems that need intervention in order to remove price distortion or externality costs in the long run. Issues such as seasonality, many middlemen, high perishability and poor processing technologies among others were mentioned. Hence, these issues need to be addressed adequately in order to achieve high efficiency in the industry.
The study established the relationship between amount of loan guaranteed by the Agricultural Cred... more The study established the relationship between amount of loan guaranteed by the Agricultural Credit Guarantee Scheme Fund (ACGSF) and some key macroeconomic variables in Nigeria. Augmented Dickey-Fuller unit root test and improved ADF-GLS unit root test conducted on the specified time series showed that all series were integrated of order one. The short-run and long-run elasticities of amount of loan guaranteed by ACGSF with respect to some key macroeconomic fundamentals were determined using the techniques of co-integration and error correction models. The empirical results revealed that in the long run, the coefficients of interest rate charged by commercial banks and value of oil revenue has a significant negative and positive relationship respectively with the amount of loan guaranteed by the ACGSF in the country. Whereas in the short run, the coefficients of the previous amount of loan guaranteed and value of oil revenue as well as the real GDP has a positive association with the current amount of loan guaranteed by ACGSF while the external debt has a negative association. The results were further substantiated by the variance decomposition and impulse response analysis of the dependent variable with respect to changes in the explanatory variables. The findings call for appropriate short and long term economic policy packages that should focused on the stabilization of the identified significant macroeconomic shifters of amount of loan guaranteed by ACGSF in the country. Special attention should be given to the interest charged on agricultural loan by participating banks. Also, diversification of the country's economy and drastic reduction in external debt would boost the operation of ACGSF in the country and enhances credit availability to Nigerian farmers.
International Journal of Finance & Banking Studies (2147-4486), 2016
Increasing trend in Non-performing loans (NPLs) adversely affected availability of credits to eco... more Increasing trend in Non-performing loans (NPLs) adversely affected availability of credits to economic agents in all sectors of the economy thereby constraining financial intermediation and economic activities. The study examined the trend and growth rates of NPLs in the Nigerian banking system during the major banking policy reforms regimes namely: pre-consolidation (1979-2004) and post consolidation era (2005-2014). Time series data collected were analyzed using descriptive and regression analyses. Results indicated irregular fluctuations in NPLs' trend in both periods. This result suggested prevalent of high credit risk and corresponding reduction in lending capability of banks in the economy. Regression estimates of NPLs' trend in the two regimes showed significant negative growth rates.This implies that, financial policies implemented in the country yielded positive impacts over time. NPLs assumed an exponential growth rate of-1.39% and-15.55% during the pre and post consolidated eras respectively. An average exponential growth rate of-5.2% was obtained during the entire period. Quadratic trend analysis revealed that, increase influence of time variable significantly reduced NPLs during preconsolidation regime and the entire period considered. However, this influence was stagnated during post consolidation period. Based on the result, it is recommended that, prudent lending coupled with swift and orderly clean-up of banking system loan portfolios should be adopted to decelerate NPLs trend and growth rate in Nigeria. Time is an important element in designing and implementing any banking and macroeconomic policy.
International Journal of Economics and Finance, 2015
Nigeria is currently the largest importer of milled rice in the world. The country has implemente... more Nigeria is currently the largest importer of milled rice in the world. The country has implemented several trade policies, set up institutions and incentives to boost domestic production with the intention to meet both domestic and international demands. Despite these attempts and favorable climatic, manpower and edaphic conditions in the country, Nigeria still spent millions of dollars on annual basis on rice imports. Based on this assertion, t he study rather examined the roles of political and economic environments on rice import demand from 1960 to 2014 in Nigeria. Time series data were obtained from FAO, Central Bank of Nigeria and National Bureau of Statistics as well as World Bank. Augmented Dickey-Fuller-GLS unit root test showed that all series were integrated of order one. The long-run and short-run elasticity of rice import demand were determined using the techniques of co-integration and error correction models. The trend in rice import revealed that, the country had witnessed significant average positive exponential growth rate of about 15.975% in rice import from 1960 to 2014. The empirical results revealed that, the long run import demand function of rice responded negatively to the world price, industrial capacity utilization, nominal exchange rate, and the value of gross domestic production; whereas, it reacted positively to period of civilian rule, nominal value of external reserve, period of liberalization and the net volume of credit to the entire economy. The symmetric adjustment coefficient of rice import demand to a long run equilibrium stood at 39.65% per annum. In the short run, rice import had a significant negative and elastic relationship with the domestic and world price of rice; while it has significant positive inelastic association with external reserve and net credit to the economy. Based on these results; it is recommended that, the Nigeria government should designed programmes and incentives to boost industrial capacity utilization in the country. Markets determine nominal exchange rate should prevail in the economy. The country should regulate its foreign reserve policy by setting a threshold, above which excess deposit should be plough back to the domestic economy inform of investments rather than support excessive importation.
Russian Journal of Agricultural and Socio-Economic Sciences, 2015
Evidence has shown that, sustainable agricultural intensification amidst stable economic environm... more Evidence has shown that, sustainable agricultural intensification amidst stable economic environment offers workable options to eradicate poverty and hunger. This study examined the trend in agricultural intensification and determined the influence of some macroeconomic variables from 1960 to 2014 in Nigeria. The result showed that, all series were integrated of order one. The exponential trend analysis of agricultural intensification revealed an average annual negative growth rate of 1.60%, 2.10% and 0.10% in Herfindahl, Ogive and Entropy intensification indexes respectively. The long-run and short-run elasticity of the agricultural intensification were determined using the techniques of co-integration and error correction models. The estimation of the error correction model supported the long run stability of agricultural intensification in Nigeria. The empirical results revealed that, in the long run; inflation, industrial output, external reserves, per capita income, and energy consumption were negative drivers of agricultural intensification; whereas crude oil prices, lending rate of Bank, foreign capital in agriculture and non-oil import works in opposite direction. However, in the short run, inflation, external reserves and industrial output retards agricultural intensification; while lending rate of Banks and crude oil price were stimulants. A ten-year out sampled forecast of agricultural intensification showed a steady declined. The empirical results were further substantiated by the variance decomposition and impulse response analyses. It is recommended that, the Nigeria government should realigned its macroeconomic policies to achieve stability in inflation rate, external reserves, industrial production, electricity consumption, agricultural credit institution to achieve sustainable agricultural intensification in the long run.
Russian Journal of Agricultural and Socio-Economic Sciences, 2015
Evidence of labour constrained in the rural area and increasing rural-urban migration as well as ... more Evidence of labour constrained in the rural area and increasing rural-urban migration as well as mounting youth unemployment in urban areas of the Southern of Nigeria drove our interest to analyze youth involvement in agricultural activities in the region. Specifically, the study determined factors that modeled rural youth decision and participation in agricultural activities in the Southern region of Nigeria. Data were collected from 300 youth spread across the rural areas of Akwa Ibom State, one of the States in the region. Combinations of sampling methods were used to collect data for the study. Analytical tools used were descriptive and regression analysis (the Logit and Poisson regression). The Logit model estimates revealed that years of youth in social organization, access to ICT, nature of land ownership, and youth access to state owned agricultural programme were positive determined of decision of youth to engage in agricultural activities in the study area. On the contrary, male youth, years of formal education and marital status of youth were negative determinants. The Poisson estimates showed that, youth age, number of extension visit and years in social organization as well as purpose of farming were positive drivers of youth participation (numbers of hours spent in farm per day) in agricultural activities in the rural areas. On the other hand, years of formal education, farm income of previous farming season, land ownership and access to credit triggered youth participation negatively. Perceived constraints to youth involvement in agricultural activities were; insufficient initial capital, insufficient credit facility, poor storage facility, poor access to tractors and inadequate farm land among others. In order to increase youth involvement in agricultural activities in the rural areas, it is recommended that, stake holders should endeavor to provide storage facilities in the rural area to reduce the post-harvest losses. Communities in the rural area should support youth farmers through land donation. In addition government should empowered and strengthen youth groups or social capital formation in the rural Communities. State extension system should be strengthened to deliver more efficient services to youth farmers in the rural areas.
International Journal of Agriculture and Forestry, 2014
The study examined the price transmission and market integration of local and foreign rice in rur... more The study examined the price transmission and market integration of local and foreign rice in rural and urban markets of Akwa Ibom State in Southern region of Nigeria. Average monthly prices (measured in naira per kilogram) of local and foreign rice in rural and urban markets were used in the analysis. The data came from the quarterly publication of the Akwa Ibom State Agricultural Development Programme (AKADEP). The data covered January 2005 to June 2013. The findings show that, prices of local and foreign rice in rural and urban markets has constant exponential growth rate of 0.59% which suggests perfect co-movement for rural and urban prices of local and foreign rice in the study area. Also, the Pearson correlation coefficient matrix revealed that, the rural price of local and foreign rice has linear symmetrical relationships with their corresponding urban prices. The result connotes the existence of symmetric market information flows between the rural and urban rice markets in the state. The Granger causality test revealed bidirectional relationship between rural and urban price of local and foreign rice in Akwa Ibom State, Nigeria. The results of the co-integration test revealed the presence of co-integration between the rural and urban prices of local and foreign rice as well as support the hypothesis of perfect price transmission between the two markets in the study area. The coefficients of the price variable in the co-integration equations for local and foreign rice markets converge to unity which connotes perfect market integration in the long run. The results of the error correction model (ECM) also confirm the existence of the short run market integration between the rural and urban prices of local and foreign rice in the study area. In addition, the result shows that, the price of local rice in both rural and urban markets adjusted faster than prices of foreign rice once there is an exogenous shock in the marketing process of rice in Akwa Ibom State. The index of market concentration (IMC) supports the high short run market integration between prices in rural and urban markets for local and foreign rice commodities and the quick adjustment of rural price of local rice in relative to rural price of foreign rice. Based on the finding, it is recommended that, the state government should continue to provide marketing infrastructures to improve the symmetric nature of information among participants in rice marketing in the state. Attempt should be made to reduce excessive externality costs in rice marketing in order to fully reap the benefit of rice market integration in the state.
In the last thirty years, the performance of the agricultural GDP in Nigeria has been decimally, ... more In the last thirty years, the performance of the agricultural GDP in Nigeria has been decimally, declining from 64 percent share of gross domestic product (GDP) in 1960 to 44 percent in 2010. In response to this scenario, this study evaluated the performance of various policy regimes that managed the resources of Nigeria from 1961 to 2010. This is with the goal of identifying the regime that is the best in growing the agricultural sector for recommendation. The study estimated the exponential trend of the agricultural sector and analysed such growth under different policy regimes. Time series secondary data were used. Data analysis involved the use of exponential or log-linear trend. The result of the trend analysis confirmed deceleration of the agricultural sector. The result also showed that the period (1995-2010) of liberalization policy regime topped other policy regime periods in confirming acceleration in agricultural output growth. The result also showed that the mean growth ...
The paper analyzed the expectations and benefit of petroleum resource exploration in three oil pr... more The paper analyzed the expectations and benefit of petroleum resource exploration in three oil producing communities of Esit Eket, Ibeno, and Eastern Obolo Local Government Area (LGAs), Akwa Ibom State, in south-South, Nigeria. A two stage purposive sampling frame was constructed from the list of four communities, spanning three LGAs, identified. Since all the communities apparently displayed similar socioeconomic and cultural characteristics, a simple random sampling technique was employed to select 28 communities with a total of 400 questionnaires, using " Yaro Yamane " formula for a finite population. The data collected was analyzed using descriptive statistics while a two way dependent t-test analysis was used in comparing the mean score of the two variables, identified as: the expectation of the host communities (independent variable) and benefit deliveries from relevant stakeholders in the oil sector (dependent variable).The result of the analysis revealed that, the ...
This study analyzed factors influencing defaults in loan repayments among agricultural credit gua... more This study analyzed factors influencing defaults in loan repayments among agricultural credit guarantee scheme (ACGS) loan beneficiaries in Akwa Ibom State using Tobit model. A total of 109 ACGS loan beneficiaries were randomly sampled from the study area. Analysis of data using the model revealed that 12 explanatory variables namely: age of the beneficiaries, family dependency level, total farm cost, farm income, time interval between loan application and disbursement, other loan schemes, visits by credit officers, loan duration, government policies, years of experience, loan size and average interest rate charged were significant variables influencing default in loan repayment among the beneficiaries in the study area. The study recommended that efforts should be directed towards promoting a good credit culture and discipline through client education and moral persuasion
The study investigated relationships between agricultural policy output (proxy by the agricultura... more The study investigated relationships between agricultural policy output (proxy by the agricultural productivity index, agricultural GDP/total GDP and crop productivity index) and output of industrial sector (proxy by the industrial capacity utilization rate) from 1970 to 2012 period in Nigeria. The study employed time series variables obtained from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), National Bureau of Statistics and Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO). Augmented Dickey-Fuller unit root test was conducted on the specified time series, and the result showed that all non-growth rate series were integrated of order one, while growth rate series were stationary at level. The two-step Engle Granger method was employed to test for the presence of co-integration among specified variables. The result revealed that variables were not co-integrated. To avoid spurious regression, the specified models for non-growth rate series were estimated at first difference of the log variables.
The study examined the relationship between agricultural land use and population growth rates fro... more The study examined the relationship between agricultural land use and population growth rates from 1961 to 2018 in Nigeria. Secondary data were obtained from Food and Agricultural Organization and the World Bank. Descriptive statistics, trend equation and correlation analyses were used. Findings revealed that agricultural and arable land utilization grew at the rate of 0.62% and 0.72%, respectively per annum; while the total population growth rate stood at 2.57%. Also, urban and rural population grew at a rate of 4.75% and 1.67% respectively. In addition, the agricultural and arable land utilization rates had significant positive correlations with the total population, urban and rural population. Besides, the findings revealed that, agricultural land (to total land ratio) has continued to increase and currently averaged at 68.78% indicating massive land expansion put under agricultural used. Findings revealed that, most arable crop outputs increase majorly from land expansion rather...
Asian Journal of Agriculture and Rural Development
The study is an attempt to examine the influence of macroeconomic variables on the growth of fish... more The study is an attempt to examine the influence of macroeconomic variables on the growth of fishery sub-sector in Nigeria. The study covers the period from 1961 and 2017. The results apparently revealed that aquaculture production, artisanal fish production, and total fish production, grew exponentially at the rate of 8.90%, 3.75%, and 4.25% respectively. To be more precise, various other factors like, demand shocks, food imports, and variable exchange rate, affected artisanal fish production in the long-run; while exchange rate and demand shocks were significant in the short-run period. For the aquaculture production, demand shocks, credit potential, inflation, food imports, and exchange rate were some significant policy variables in the long-run; whereas demand shocks and exchange rate were also significant in the short-run period. Finally, as far as the total fish production is concerned, demand shocks, food imports, and exchange rate were significantly trending variables, both ...
The study focused on the determination of variances among consumer prices of rice (local white), ... more The study focused on the determination of variances among consumer prices of rice (local white), beans (white) and garri (yellow) in Watts, Okurikang and 8 Miles markets in southern zone of Cross River State. Completely randomized design was used to test the research hypothesis. Comparing the consumer prices of rice, beans and garri in the three markets; rice and garri had insignificant differences in their consumer prices while beans consumer prices had significant differences between Okurikang market and the other two markets. The results imply perfect information flow in garri and rice markets and hence high possibility of a perfectly competitive market structure for these products. The reverse is the case for beans market. Policies on increased local production of rice, garri and beans as well as improved marketing infrastructures were recommended as these would help increase sellers profit while maximizing consumers' benefits.
The study analyzed economic capacity utilization rates in the sugar industry for the period 1970 ... more The study analyzed economic capacity utilization rates in the sugar industry for the period 1970 to 2010 in Nigeria. Secondary data obtained from sugar firms; Central Bank of Nigeria; National Bureau of Statistics and the Federal Ministry of Finance were used in the study. Stochastic Cobb-Douglas cost functions for the sugar industry were estimated from which indices of economic capacity utilization rates were obtained. Trend in the economic capacity utilization rate showed undulated pattern with an average index of 60.30% and excess economic capacity of 39.70%. Multiple-regression of various forms based on the ordinary least squares technique was used to determine factors that influence the performance indicators in the industry. Empirical results revealed that economic capacity utilization rates in the sugar industry was influenced by the inflation rate, per capita real GDP, energy consumption of the industry, federal government expenditure on the sugar industry and the period of liberalization. The result of the regression and descriptive analyses revealed that the sugar industry in Nigeria was constrained by insufficient production inputs. Policy measures aimed at reduction or maintaining a steady or less fluctuated inflation rate in the country, expansionary aggregate demand, increase funding to agencies that have direct dealings with the sugar production and adequate provision of electricity to the industry as well as the adoption of the liberalization industrial policy on sugar industry were recommended.
There is surfeit of evidence on increase poverty and low agricultural productivity among majority... more There is surfeit of evidence on increase poverty and low agricultural productivity among majority of rural dwellers in Nigeria. Researches have established an inverse linked between rural poverty and sustainable households’ asset based. Agricultural production, being the major livelihood source for majority of rural dwellers needs considerable asset or capital for it to be considered as sustainable. Based on this assertion, the study assesses the sustainable livelihood assets of farming households in Abak Local Government area of Akwa Ibom state in Southern region of Nigeria. A multi-stage sampling technique was employed to select 110 farming household heads in the study area. Structured questionnaires were used to collect cross sectional data from respondents. Descriptive tools were used to analyse data collected. The socioeconomic features of respondents revealed a sample population that is fast ageing, dominated by married male and moderately educated. Result also showed that, re...
The study had established empirical relationships between remittances and indicators of agricultu... more The study had established empirical relationships between remittances and indicators of agricultural productivity (agricultural GDP/total GDP, Agricultural productivity index and crop productivity index) in Nigeria. Augmented Dickey-Fuller unit root tests were conducted on the specified time series to ascertain the variables' order of integration. The trend analysis revealed that, remittances, agricultural GDP, agricultural productivity index and crop productivity index have positive exponential growth rates, but remittances grew at a faster rate than others. It was discovered that, remittance has linear and symmetric relationships with agricultural productivity index and crop productivity index in Nigeria. However, there was no significant relationship among growth rates of remittances, agricultural GDP, agricultural productivity index and crop productivity index in Nigeria. The bilateral Granger causality test indicates unilateral relationship between nominal value of agricultural GDP and remittance inflow in the country. The result of the co-integration test revealed the presence of co-integration among specified variables. Agricultural productivity index and crop productivity index have significant relationships with remittance in the long run. Also, agricultural GDP and agricultural productivity index exhibited significant association with remittances in the short run.
Russian Journal of Agricultural and Socio-Economic Sciences, 2016
Most government agricultural programmes in developing countries are designed following the politi... more Most government agricultural programmes in developing countries are designed following the political ideology of the ruling class and farmers have mixed responses regarding participation. The top-bottom approach adopted in designing these programmes further created dissatisfaction among farmers. Achieving the objectives of these programmes will depend on the level of farmers' participation. Premised on this, the study determined factors that influence farmers' participation in government agricultural programmes in the Southern region of Nigeria. Data were collected from 390 farmers in the study area. Combinations of sampling methods were used to collect data. The Logit model estimates revealed that, household size, dependent ratio, farming experience, years in social organization, land ownership, awareness index, membership in political party, non-farm income, visit by extension agent, male composition in farming population and level of formal education were positive determinants of farmers' participation in government agricultural programmes in the study area. On the contrary, farm income and bureaucracy bottleneck involved in these programmes were negative determinants. Perceived constraints to farmers' participation were; bureaucracy involve; insufficient land for implementation, high transport cost and low awareness. In order to increase farmers' participation in agricultural based programme in the region, it is recommended that, government should reclaim marginal land and create a policy that will increase land ownership by resource poor farmers in the region. Farmers should be encouraged to form social groups. Massive awareness campaign should be mounted to sensitize farmers on government agricultural programmes in the region. Also, such programmes should be politically neutral and design following bottom-up approach.
Agricultural price behaviour in the long run depends on several factors ranging from the socioeco... more Agricultural price behaviour in the long run depends on several factors ranging from the socioeconomic , environmental and political environment among others. This study tested for the long run price adjustment mechanism between the producer price of raw cassava in the rural market and retailed price of its derivatives in urban market in the Southern region of Nigeria. The study was built from the Engle-Granger to Enders-Siklos methodologies to verify the symmetric and asymmetric price relationship between the source price (raw cassava) and its derivative prices (garri, fufu, chip, starch and flour) along the food chain. The result confirmed significant short and long run market integration between the source and its derivatives. However, the source price equilibrium in the long run followed asymmetric adjustment with respect to urban prices of fufu and cassava flour; whereas symmetric adjustment was obtained with respect to prices of garri, cassava chip and starch. It is suggested that, the cassava market/industry in the study area has problems that need intervention in order to remove price distortion or externality costs in the long run. Issues such as seasonality, many middlemen, high perishability and poor processing technologies among others were mentioned. Hence, these issues need to be addressed adequately in order to achieve high efficiency in the industry.
The study established the relationship between amount of loan guaranteed by the Agricultural Cred... more The study established the relationship between amount of loan guaranteed by the Agricultural Credit Guarantee Scheme Fund (ACGSF) and some key macroeconomic variables in Nigeria. Augmented Dickey-Fuller unit root test and improved ADF-GLS unit root test conducted on the specified time series showed that all series were integrated of order one. The short-run and long-run elasticities of amount of loan guaranteed by ACGSF with respect to some key macroeconomic fundamentals were determined using the techniques of co-integration and error correction models. The empirical results revealed that in the long run, the coefficients of interest rate charged by commercial banks and value of oil revenue has a significant negative and positive relationship respectively with the amount of loan guaranteed by the ACGSF in the country. Whereas in the short run, the coefficients of the previous amount of loan guaranteed and value of oil revenue as well as the real GDP has a positive association with the current amount of loan guaranteed by ACGSF while the external debt has a negative association. The results were further substantiated by the variance decomposition and impulse response analysis of the dependent variable with respect to changes in the explanatory variables. The findings call for appropriate short and long term economic policy packages that should focused on the stabilization of the identified significant macroeconomic shifters of amount of loan guaranteed by ACGSF in the country. Special attention should be given to the interest charged on agricultural loan by participating banks. Also, diversification of the country's economy and drastic reduction in external debt would boost the operation of ACGSF in the country and enhances credit availability to Nigerian farmers.
International Journal of Finance & Banking Studies (2147-4486), 2016
Increasing trend in Non-performing loans (NPLs) adversely affected availability of credits to eco... more Increasing trend in Non-performing loans (NPLs) adversely affected availability of credits to economic agents in all sectors of the economy thereby constraining financial intermediation and economic activities. The study examined the trend and growth rates of NPLs in the Nigerian banking system during the major banking policy reforms regimes namely: pre-consolidation (1979-2004) and post consolidation era (2005-2014). Time series data collected were analyzed using descriptive and regression analyses. Results indicated irregular fluctuations in NPLs' trend in both periods. This result suggested prevalent of high credit risk and corresponding reduction in lending capability of banks in the economy. Regression estimates of NPLs' trend in the two regimes showed significant negative growth rates.This implies that, financial policies implemented in the country yielded positive impacts over time. NPLs assumed an exponential growth rate of-1.39% and-15.55% during the pre and post consolidated eras respectively. An average exponential growth rate of-5.2% was obtained during the entire period. Quadratic trend analysis revealed that, increase influence of time variable significantly reduced NPLs during preconsolidation regime and the entire period considered. However, this influence was stagnated during post consolidation period. Based on the result, it is recommended that, prudent lending coupled with swift and orderly clean-up of banking system loan portfolios should be adopted to decelerate NPLs trend and growth rate in Nigeria. Time is an important element in designing and implementing any banking and macroeconomic policy.
International Journal of Economics and Finance, 2015
Nigeria is currently the largest importer of milled rice in the world. The country has implemente... more Nigeria is currently the largest importer of milled rice in the world. The country has implemented several trade policies, set up institutions and incentives to boost domestic production with the intention to meet both domestic and international demands. Despite these attempts and favorable climatic, manpower and edaphic conditions in the country, Nigeria still spent millions of dollars on annual basis on rice imports. Based on this assertion, t he study rather examined the roles of political and economic environments on rice import demand from 1960 to 2014 in Nigeria. Time series data were obtained from FAO, Central Bank of Nigeria and National Bureau of Statistics as well as World Bank. Augmented Dickey-Fuller-GLS unit root test showed that all series were integrated of order one. The long-run and short-run elasticity of rice import demand were determined using the techniques of co-integration and error correction models. The trend in rice import revealed that, the country had witnessed significant average positive exponential growth rate of about 15.975% in rice import from 1960 to 2014. The empirical results revealed that, the long run import demand function of rice responded negatively to the world price, industrial capacity utilization, nominal exchange rate, and the value of gross domestic production; whereas, it reacted positively to period of civilian rule, nominal value of external reserve, period of liberalization and the net volume of credit to the entire economy. The symmetric adjustment coefficient of rice import demand to a long run equilibrium stood at 39.65% per annum. In the short run, rice import had a significant negative and elastic relationship with the domestic and world price of rice; while it has significant positive inelastic association with external reserve and net credit to the economy. Based on these results; it is recommended that, the Nigeria government should designed programmes and incentives to boost industrial capacity utilization in the country. Markets determine nominal exchange rate should prevail in the economy. The country should regulate its foreign reserve policy by setting a threshold, above which excess deposit should be plough back to the domestic economy inform of investments rather than support excessive importation.
Russian Journal of Agricultural and Socio-Economic Sciences, 2015
Evidence has shown that, sustainable agricultural intensification amidst stable economic environm... more Evidence has shown that, sustainable agricultural intensification amidst stable economic environment offers workable options to eradicate poverty and hunger. This study examined the trend in agricultural intensification and determined the influence of some macroeconomic variables from 1960 to 2014 in Nigeria. The result showed that, all series were integrated of order one. The exponential trend analysis of agricultural intensification revealed an average annual negative growth rate of 1.60%, 2.10% and 0.10% in Herfindahl, Ogive and Entropy intensification indexes respectively. The long-run and short-run elasticity of the agricultural intensification were determined using the techniques of co-integration and error correction models. The estimation of the error correction model supported the long run stability of agricultural intensification in Nigeria. The empirical results revealed that, in the long run; inflation, industrial output, external reserves, per capita income, and energy consumption were negative drivers of agricultural intensification; whereas crude oil prices, lending rate of Bank, foreign capital in agriculture and non-oil import works in opposite direction. However, in the short run, inflation, external reserves and industrial output retards agricultural intensification; while lending rate of Banks and crude oil price were stimulants. A ten-year out sampled forecast of agricultural intensification showed a steady declined. The empirical results were further substantiated by the variance decomposition and impulse response analyses. It is recommended that, the Nigeria government should realigned its macroeconomic policies to achieve stability in inflation rate, external reserves, industrial production, electricity consumption, agricultural credit institution to achieve sustainable agricultural intensification in the long run.
Russian Journal of Agricultural and Socio-Economic Sciences, 2015
Evidence of labour constrained in the rural area and increasing rural-urban migration as well as ... more Evidence of labour constrained in the rural area and increasing rural-urban migration as well as mounting youth unemployment in urban areas of the Southern of Nigeria drove our interest to analyze youth involvement in agricultural activities in the region. Specifically, the study determined factors that modeled rural youth decision and participation in agricultural activities in the Southern region of Nigeria. Data were collected from 300 youth spread across the rural areas of Akwa Ibom State, one of the States in the region. Combinations of sampling methods were used to collect data for the study. Analytical tools used were descriptive and regression analysis (the Logit and Poisson regression). The Logit model estimates revealed that years of youth in social organization, access to ICT, nature of land ownership, and youth access to state owned agricultural programme were positive determined of decision of youth to engage in agricultural activities in the study area. On the contrary, male youth, years of formal education and marital status of youth were negative determinants. The Poisson estimates showed that, youth age, number of extension visit and years in social organization as well as purpose of farming were positive drivers of youth participation (numbers of hours spent in farm per day) in agricultural activities in the rural areas. On the other hand, years of formal education, farm income of previous farming season, land ownership and access to credit triggered youth participation negatively. Perceived constraints to youth involvement in agricultural activities were; insufficient initial capital, insufficient credit facility, poor storage facility, poor access to tractors and inadequate farm land among others. In order to increase youth involvement in agricultural activities in the rural areas, it is recommended that, stake holders should endeavor to provide storage facilities in the rural area to reduce the post-harvest losses. Communities in the rural area should support youth farmers through land donation. In addition government should empowered and strengthen youth groups or social capital formation in the rural Communities. State extension system should be strengthened to deliver more efficient services to youth farmers in the rural areas.
International Journal of Agriculture and Forestry, 2014
The study examined the price transmission and market integration of local and foreign rice in rur... more The study examined the price transmission and market integration of local and foreign rice in rural and urban markets of Akwa Ibom State in Southern region of Nigeria. Average monthly prices (measured in naira per kilogram) of local and foreign rice in rural and urban markets were used in the analysis. The data came from the quarterly publication of the Akwa Ibom State Agricultural Development Programme (AKADEP). The data covered January 2005 to June 2013. The findings show that, prices of local and foreign rice in rural and urban markets has constant exponential growth rate of 0.59% which suggests perfect co-movement for rural and urban prices of local and foreign rice in the study area. Also, the Pearson correlation coefficient matrix revealed that, the rural price of local and foreign rice has linear symmetrical relationships with their corresponding urban prices. The result connotes the existence of symmetric market information flows between the rural and urban rice markets in the state. The Granger causality test revealed bidirectional relationship between rural and urban price of local and foreign rice in Akwa Ibom State, Nigeria. The results of the co-integration test revealed the presence of co-integration between the rural and urban prices of local and foreign rice as well as support the hypothesis of perfect price transmission between the two markets in the study area. The coefficients of the price variable in the co-integration equations for local and foreign rice markets converge to unity which connotes perfect market integration in the long run. The results of the error correction model (ECM) also confirm the existence of the short run market integration between the rural and urban prices of local and foreign rice in the study area. In addition, the result shows that, the price of local rice in both rural and urban markets adjusted faster than prices of foreign rice once there is an exogenous shock in the marketing process of rice in Akwa Ibom State. The index of market concentration (IMC) supports the high short run market integration between prices in rural and urban markets for local and foreign rice commodities and the quick adjustment of rural price of local rice in relative to rural price of foreign rice. Based on the finding, it is recommended that, the state government should continue to provide marketing infrastructures to improve the symmetric nature of information among participants in rice marketing in the state. Attempt should be made to reduce excessive externality costs in rice marketing in order to fully reap the benefit of rice market integration in the state.
In the last thirty years, the performance of the agricultural GDP in Nigeria has been decimally, ... more In the last thirty years, the performance of the agricultural GDP in Nigeria has been decimally, declining from 64 percent share of gross domestic product (GDP) in 1960 to 44 percent in 2010. In response to this scenario, this study evaluated the performance of various policy regimes that managed the resources of Nigeria from 1961 to 2010. This is with the goal of identifying the regime that is the best in growing the agricultural sector for recommendation. The study estimated the exponential trend of the agricultural sector and analysed such growth under different policy regimes. Time series secondary data were used. Data analysis involved the use of exponential or log-linear trend. The result of the trend analysis confirmed deceleration of the agricultural sector. The result also showed that the period (1995-2010) of liberalization policy regime topped other policy regime periods in confirming acceleration in agricultural output growth. The result also showed that the mean growth ...
The paper analyzed the expectations and benefit of petroleum resource exploration in three oil pr... more The paper analyzed the expectations and benefit of petroleum resource exploration in three oil producing communities of Esit Eket, Ibeno, and Eastern Obolo Local Government Area (LGAs), Akwa Ibom State, in south-South, Nigeria. A two stage purposive sampling frame was constructed from the list of four communities, spanning three LGAs, identified. Since all the communities apparently displayed similar socioeconomic and cultural characteristics, a simple random sampling technique was employed to select 28 communities with a total of 400 questionnaires, using " Yaro Yamane " formula for a finite population. The data collected was analyzed using descriptive statistics while a two way dependent t-test analysis was used in comparing the mean score of the two variables, identified as: the expectation of the host communities (independent variable) and benefit deliveries from relevant stakeholders in the oil sector (dependent variable).The result of the analysis revealed that, the ...
This study analyzed factors influencing defaults in loan repayments among agricultural credit gua... more This study analyzed factors influencing defaults in loan repayments among agricultural credit guarantee scheme (ACGS) loan beneficiaries in Akwa Ibom State using Tobit model. A total of 109 ACGS loan beneficiaries were randomly sampled from the study area. Analysis of data using the model revealed that 12 explanatory variables namely: age of the beneficiaries, family dependency level, total farm cost, farm income, time interval between loan application and disbursement, other loan schemes, visits by credit officers, loan duration, government policies, years of experience, loan size and average interest rate charged were significant variables influencing default in loan repayment among the beneficiaries in the study area. The study recommended that efforts should be directed towards promoting a good credit culture and discipline through client education and moral persuasion
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