Papers by AGBEDE M O S E S Oyeyemi
The study investigated the effects of foreign capital inflows on manufacturing sector output in N... more The study investigated the effects of foreign capital inflows on manufacturing sector output in Nigeria. Time series data were used for the study and they were sourced from the Central Bank of Nigeria Statistical Bulletins 2018 and World Bank Indicators which spanned between 1986 to 2017. In order to achieve the objective of the study, the study employed the Autoregressive Distributive Lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach to establish the long-run relationship between the relevant time series data. The unit root test employed suggested that, all the variables were found to be either I(0) or I(1) levels of stationary. The Lag length criterion was one, the bound test was conducted which revealed an existence of long run relationship among the variables. The study found that a unit rise in foreign direct investment and foreign portfolio investment increases manufacturing output by 29% and 15%, credit to manufacturing sector signed positive but insignificant to manufacturing output in Nigeria. Development assistance and external debt have an inverse relationship with manufacturing output in the long-run model. External debt has a significant negative effect on manufacturing output while development assistance signed positive but insignificant on the manufacturing sector output in the short run. Therefore, the study recommended among others a proactive step to expand market capitalization which is the major driver of foreign portfolio investment and formulate policies to attract foreign capital inflow to improve manufacturing output in Nigeria.
Journal of Economics and Sustainable Development, 2018
This study analyzed the effects of food price inflation on households in Ondo State. The study ma... more This study analyzed the effects of food price inflation on households in Ondo State. The study made use of 82 rural households in Ondo state using a Random Sampling Technique. Primary data was employed to generate information for the food groups. Demand for food groups in this study was estimated using Quadratic Almost Ideal Demand System (QUAIDS) technique while the welfare effect was estimated with both the QUAIDS and the Compensated Variation model. The result of the QUAIDS model showed that apart from Plantain, all other estimated expenditure elasticities were all positive and statistically significant at the percent level, indicating that all the food items are normal goods. It was further observed that Rice (0.07), Beans (0.10), Garri(0.03) and
Plantain(-0.21) are necessities since their coefficients were less than 1. In addition, the Compensated Variation model indicated that households in Ondo State needed to be compensated around 24.9 percent of their total household expenditure on food in order to accommodate the adverse impact of food price inflation. The conclusion, however, is that all households in Ondo State suffered welfare losses from the hike in the food prices between January and October 2016. Consequently, the study recommended that the government should try, as much as possible, to subsidize the price of foodstuffs so that it can be accessible to households in Ondo State in order to improve their welfare.
IIARD International Journal of Economics and Business Management, 2018
In spite of the huge rents from oil, the economy still couples with many problems including high ... more In spite of the huge rents from oil, the economy still couples with many problems including high and the rising unemployment rate, declining manufacturing production, the high and rising level of poverty, low per capita income and poor infrastructural development. In the light of the study, the objective of the paper was to examine the contribution of the oil revenue to Nigerian output growth for the period of 1981 to 2014. Using Beghebo and Altima model with little modification, the study employed the fully modified ordinary least squared method
(FMOLS) to examine the relationship. Data covering the period 1981-2014 were sourced from the Central Bank of Nigeria Statistical Bulletin and the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation Statistical Bulletin. The study, therefore, discovered that oil revenue does not have a short-run impact on the economic activities of Nigeria. However, the long run impact of this policy gave a sterling story, as it was revealed that the persistence rise in oil revenue will ultimately lead to future economic growth of the country. It is however recommended that the government should effectively and efficiently utilize the oil fund into strategic developmental projects so as reduce the rate of poverty and facilitate output growth.
Poverty level in Ondo State is extremely high particularly in rural areas, this is due to low per... more Poverty level in Ondo State is extremely high particularly in rural areas, this is due to low per capita income coupled with various factors and the consumer price index increasing on a daily basis such a way that household income can hardly cope with the trend. Consequently, there are several empirical studies on household expenditure but most of those studies focused on only foodstuffs, however, this study focused on food and non-foodstuffs. This study investigated households' expenditure in rural areas of Ondo State and the specific objectives were: (i) examined the effects of income on household expenditure in rural areas of Ondo State and (ii) identified the determinants of household expenditure in rural areas of Ondo State. Data collected from five hundred and nineteen (519) households' heads selected for the study through multi-stage sampling method were analyzed using the QUAIDS. The study found that all expenditure elasticities were positive, indicating that food and non-food items are normal goods. It was also discovered that Beans (0.22) and Gari (0.82) are necessities with their elasticities less than 1 while others are luxury goods since their elasticities are greater than 1. Own price elasticities were mostly negative as expected in both uncompensated and compensated price elasticity estimates for food items. The Hicksian cross-price elasticities showed that gari and meat were substitutes. The study concluded that income and price influence household purchasing power in rural areas. And thus recommended that economic policies should be geared towards preventing fluctuations majorly in the price of food and non-food items.
This paper investigates disaggregate energy supply and industrial output growth in Nigeria using ... more This paper investigates disaggregate energy supply and industrial output growth in Nigeria using time series data from 1981-2014. Nigeria persistent energy crisis has weakened the industrialisation process despite the country is endowed with various energy resources, gap between the demand and supply of energy still remained a critical challenge. Data were sourced from the Central Bank of Nigeria, Statistical Bulletin and the National Bureau of Statistics. The study employed Ordinary Least Square method, Granger Causality and Johansen Co-integration test to carry out the empirical analysis. The findings show that electricity generated and premium motor spirit have a positive impact on industrial output growth in Nigeria but with high cost of production. Government capital expenditure signed positive, while gas consumption and automated gas oil (diesel) have negative signs from the result. This result implies that the availability of Liquefied Natural Gas in Nigeria has not contributed significantly to the industrial performance while the negative sign of automated gas oil signifies increase in it price which had increase cost of production and consequently reduce the industrial output. The unidirectional causality of Granger Causality test runs from gas consumption, electricity generated to industrial output growth. In view of the findings, it has been observed that, irregular electricity supply has been a major bane to output growth in the manufacturing sector; therefore, it is recommended that the power sector by means of guided private sector initiative should be given more attention for the growth of the nation's economy.
The crisis with the non contributory pension plan gave rise to the adoption of the 2004 Pension R... more The crisis with the non contributory pension plan gave rise to the adoption of the 2004 Pension Reform Act. This study investigated the implications of the contributory pension scheme on private domestic savings in Nigeria and the extent and magnitude on which the former has impacted on the latter. Ordinary Least Square (OLS) was employed for the empirical study. This analytical technique is suitable because it is efficient in term of output and adequacy of statistics generated. Time series data were used in the study and they were entirely secondary data which spanned from 1984-2014. The data was sourced from the Statistical Bulletin and the National Bureau of Statistics. The study checked the temporal properties of the variables in the model via unit root tests in order to determine the stationarity of the variables. The data were found stationary and co-integrated. The study revealed that 1% unit rise in pension fund contributed 5.7% to private domestic saving in the economy. The adjusted R-squared showed that 86% changes in private domestic savings were explained by pension funds, interest rate, disposable income and saving rate in the estimated model. The study recommended massive enlightenment for the scheme to the workers both in public and private sector, effective supervision and regulation of the scheme towards capital formation from saving for domestic investors. ___________________________________________________________________________ Keywords: Contributory Pensions Fund, Interest Rates, Disposable income and Saving Rate.
Oil prices traditionally have been more volatile than many other commodity or asset prices since ... more Oil prices traditionally have been more volatile than many other commodity or asset prices since World War II
and has have a lot implications on major macroeconomic variables such as inflation, money supply, capacity
utilisation and economic growth to mention a few. This paper investigated the growth implications of crude oil
price shock in Nigeria. Empirical analysis was conducted by applying the multiple regression of the ordinary
least square technique to the annual data on the Nigeria economy for the period 1979-2010. The model was
found to be significant and most of its estimates are as expected. The study revealed that a little shock in the
price of crude oil in the global oil market in the current period will produce a long–term effect on economic
growth in Nigeria. The study suggested the need for the policy makers to diversify the productive base of the
economy to other sectors such as Agriculture, Manufacturing, Tourism and other service oriented sectors to
open up a wider spectrum for inflow of income to the economy and break the overdependence of the economy
on oil sector.
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Papers by AGBEDE M O S E S Oyeyemi
Plantain(-0.21) are necessities since their coefficients were less than 1. In addition, the Compensated Variation model indicated that households in Ondo State needed to be compensated around 24.9 percent of their total household expenditure on food in order to accommodate the adverse impact of food price inflation. The conclusion, however, is that all households in Ondo State suffered welfare losses from the hike in the food prices between January and October 2016. Consequently, the study recommended that the government should try, as much as possible, to subsidize the price of foodstuffs so that it can be accessible to households in Ondo State in order to improve their welfare.
(FMOLS) to examine the relationship. Data covering the period 1981-2014 were sourced from the Central Bank of Nigeria Statistical Bulletin and the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation Statistical Bulletin. The study, therefore, discovered that oil revenue does not have a short-run impact on the economic activities of Nigeria. However, the long run impact of this policy gave a sterling story, as it was revealed that the persistence rise in oil revenue will ultimately lead to future economic growth of the country. It is however recommended that the government should effectively and efficiently utilize the oil fund into strategic developmental projects so as reduce the rate of poverty and facilitate output growth.
and has have a lot implications on major macroeconomic variables such as inflation, money supply, capacity
utilisation and economic growth to mention a few. This paper investigated the growth implications of crude oil
price shock in Nigeria. Empirical analysis was conducted by applying the multiple regression of the ordinary
least square technique to the annual data on the Nigeria economy for the period 1979-2010. The model was
found to be significant and most of its estimates are as expected. The study revealed that a little shock in the
price of crude oil in the global oil market in the current period will produce a long–term effect on economic
growth in Nigeria. The study suggested the need for the policy makers to diversify the productive base of the
economy to other sectors such as Agriculture, Manufacturing, Tourism and other service oriented sectors to
open up a wider spectrum for inflow of income to the economy and break the overdependence of the economy
on oil sector.
Plantain(-0.21) are necessities since their coefficients were less than 1. In addition, the Compensated Variation model indicated that households in Ondo State needed to be compensated around 24.9 percent of their total household expenditure on food in order to accommodate the adverse impact of food price inflation. The conclusion, however, is that all households in Ondo State suffered welfare losses from the hike in the food prices between January and October 2016. Consequently, the study recommended that the government should try, as much as possible, to subsidize the price of foodstuffs so that it can be accessible to households in Ondo State in order to improve their welfare.
(FMOLS) to examine the relationship. Data covering the period 1981-2014 were sourced from the Central Bank of Nigeria Statistical Bulletin and the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation Statistical Bulletin. The study, therefore, discovered that oil revenue does not have a short-run impact on the economic activities of Nigeria. However, the long run impact of this policy gave a sterling story, as it was revealed that the persistence rise in oil revenue will ultimately lead to future economic growth of the country. It is however recommended that the government should effectively and efficiently utilize the oil fund into strategic developmental projects so as reduce the rate of poverty and facilitate output growth.
and has have a lot implications on major macroeconomic variables such as inflation, money supply, capacity
utilisation and economic growth to mention a few. This paper investigated the growth implications of crude oil
price shock in Nigeria. Empirical analysis was conducted by applying the multiple regression of the ordinary
least square technique to the annual data on the Nigeria economy for the period 1979-2010. The model was
found to be significant and most of its estimates are as expected. The study revealed that a little shock in the
price of crude oil in the global oil market in the current period will produce a long–term effect on economic
growth in Nigeria. The study suggested the need for the policy makers to diversify the productive base of the
economy to other sectors such as Agriculture, Manufacturing, Tourism and other service oriented sectors to
open up a wider spectrum for inflow of income to the economy and break the overdependence of the economy
on oil sector.